Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
BXMT options intelligence
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 07:54 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
BXMT currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
16.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.70
Call-side skew
Trend fit
65
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-12.9%
RS -26.5
Expected move
16.0%
Put-call volume
0.70
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.36
Max pain
17.00
Underlying
16.69
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
152
Research Brief
BXMT has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 14.02–19.36; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 19.00.
Priced range14.02–19.36
Call concentration17.00
Put concentration16.00
Max pain reference17.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 14.02 to 19.36. Max pain at 17.00 sits inside that range, 1.9% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
14.0216.69 ± 2.6719.36
Confirmation level
A close beyond 19.36 or below 14.02 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 6/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure6 × 42%
+2.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement65 × 26%
+16.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility65 × 10%
+6.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 19.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
10.00-40.1%
1
1
11.00-34.1%
0
1
12.00-28.1%
1
2
13.00-22.1%
0
12
14.00-16.1%
0
108
15.00-10.1%
124
824
16.00-4.1%
129
511
17.001.9%
501
11
18.007.8%
390
1
19.0013.8%
306
1
20.0019.8%
6
0
21.0025.8%
0
0
22.0031.8%
0
0
23.0037.8%
0
0
24.0043.8%
0
0
25.0049.8%
0
0
26.0055.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.36
21 Aug
21d
0.30
18 Sep
49d
0.33
16 Oct
77d
0.31
15 Jan
168d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 152 / 152
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $179956 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+6
1W price-12.9%
Call premium24%
Put premium76%
Notional split
C 24% / P 76%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
65/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 34 contracts traded, $50540 estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$50540
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 243 contracts traded, $35718 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$35718
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 332 contracts traded, $32285 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$32285
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 442 contracts traded, $31572 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$31572
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 54 contracts traded, $17010 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$17010
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close14.54
1W-12.9%
RS-26.5
Fair value-13.8%
Options pressure6
Speculation41
Volatility65
Trend fit65
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:53
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 5.7%
30 Jul 10:43
Bearish
Pressure -58
Move 5.7%
30 Jul 15:31
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 10.0%
30 Jul 15:46
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 10.0%
30 Jul 19:48
Volatility
Pressure -30
Move 11.3%
1 Aug 06:54
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 16.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike12.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike14.00
Calls · V 29 · OI 0
Puts · V 21 · OI 12
Strike15.00
Calls · V 85 · OI 124
Puts · V 2 · OI 108
Strike16.00
Calls · V 50 · OI 129
Puts · V 7 · OI 824
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 501
Puts · V 0 · OI 511
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.08
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.21
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.33
Put-call4.63
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts46
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.75
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.31
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.32
Skew0.11
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.36
Skew0.20
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.35
Skew0.16
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBXMT261016P00014000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike14.00
Volume340
OI138
IV0.33
ContractBXMT270115C00014000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike14.00
Volume210
OI1
IV0.18
ContractBXMT260821C00019000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike19.00
Volume208
OI306
IV0.50
ContractBXMT260918C00019000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike19.00
Volume200
OI205
IV0.33
ContractBXMT270115P00015000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume190
OI317
IV0.36
ContractBXMT270115C00015000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume111
OI37
IV0.19
ContractBXMT270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume105
OI5445
IV0.20
ContractBXMT260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume85
OI124
IV0.27
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.