Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CRCA options intelligence
PROSHARES ULTRA CRCL options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
56
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 12:14 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CRCA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 35.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
35.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.08
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.3%
RS -84.1
Expected move
35.4%
Put-call volume
0.08
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
2.05
Max pain
14.00
Underlying
11.85
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
406
Research Brief
CRCA has a volatility chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.65–16.05; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 4.00.
Priced range7.65–16.05
Call concentration17.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference14.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 7.65 to 16.05. Max pain at 14.00 sits inside that range, 18.1% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
7.6511.85 ± 4.2016.05
Confirmation level
A close beyond 16.05 or below 7.65 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 56/100
Pressure is 90/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure90 × 42%
+37.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 4.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
4.00-66.2%
1
9
9.00-24.1%
0
54
10.00-15.6%
20
35
12.001.3%
9
5
13.009.7%
29
11
14.0018.1%
42
19
15.0026.6%
21
1
16.0035.0%
36
7
17.0043.5%
89
3
18.0051.9%
8
4
19.0060.3%
12
18
20.0068.8%
35
0
22.0085.7%
18
0
25.00111.0%
24
3
30.00153.2%
14
0
31.00161.6%
15
2
35.00195.4%
55
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$616Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak17.00+$718
Negative peak25.00-$1,232
Nearest balance12.47Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
4.00-66.2%
+$1
5.00-57.8%
+$10
6.00-49.4%
-$1
8.00-32.5%
-$110
9.00-24.1%
-$90
10.00-15.6%
-$397
11.00-7.2%
-$328
12.001.3%
-$237
13.009.7%
+$265
14.0018.1%
+$393
15.0026.6%
+$79
16.0035.0%
+$331
17.0043.5%
+$718
18.0051.9%
+$30
19.0060.3%
-$17
20.0068.8%
+$96
21.0077.2%
+$44
22.0085.7%
+$16
23.0094.1%
-$38
24.00102.5%
-$63
25.00111.0%
-$1,232
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
2.05
21 Aug
18d
1.85
18 Sep
46d
1.77
18 Dec
137d
1.72
19 Mar
228d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
10
11
12
13
14
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 406 / 406
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $35,852 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+90
1W price-0.3%
Call premium74%
Put premium26%
Notional split
C 74% / P 26%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $23,020 estimated gross traded notional, and 64% of visible notional.
$23,020
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $7,085 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$7,085
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 50 contracts traded, $2,500 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$2,500
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1,615 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1,615
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $570 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$570
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close11.85
1W-0.3%
RS-84.1
Fair value-82.1%
Options pressure90
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:07
Volatility
Pressure 91
Move 40.4%
30 Jul 11:44
Volatility
Pressure 80
Move 37.7%
31 Jul 11:15
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 39.6%
1 Aug 05:47
Volatility
Pressure 56
Move 36.6%
2 Aug 01:49
Bullish
Pressure 55
Move 36.7%
2 Aug 17:40
Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 36.7%
4 Aug 11:14
Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 35.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike4.00
Calls · V 28 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 9
Strike10.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 54
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV2.05
Put-call0.10
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts180
Avg IV1.85
Put-call1.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts114
Avg IV1.77
Put-call0.02
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts48
Avg IV1.72
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV2.00
Put IV1.95
Skew-0.05
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.84
Put IV1.90
Skew0.06
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.79
Put IV1.89
Skew0.10
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV1.67
Put IV1.77
Skew0.10
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCRCA261218C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike80.00
Volume50
OI300
IV1.11
ContractCRCA260821C00004000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume28
OI1
IV3.08
ContractCRCA260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume12
OI20
IV2.11
ContractCRCA260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume4
OI35
IV2.05
ContractCRCA260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume4
OI21
IV2.07
ContractCRCA260821P00009000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume3
OI9
IV1.95
ContractCRCA260821C00034000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike34.00
Volume2
OI6
IV1.91
ContractCRCA260918C00011000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike11.00
Volume2
OI5
IV1.85
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.