Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MCRI options intelligence
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 15:50 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MCRI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
5.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.42
Call-side skew
Trend fit
41
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.7%
RS 8.4
Expected move
5.3%
Put-call volume
0.42
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.45
Max pain
120.00
Underlying
119.54
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
79
Research Brief
MCRI has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 113.16–125.92; The largest call open-interest concentration is 130.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00.
Priced range113.16–125.92
Call concentration130.00
Put concentration100.00
Max pain reference120.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 113.16 to 125.92. Max pain at 120.00 sits inside that range, 0.4% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
113.16119.54 ± 6.38125.92
Confirmation level
A close beyond 125.92 or below 113.16 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 52/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure52 × 42%
+21.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation12 × 22%
+2.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement41 × 26%
+10.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility53 × 10%
+5.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 130.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
80.00-33.1%
1
1
95.00-20.5%
1
16
100.00-16.3%
1
0
105.00-12.2%
1
13
110.00-8.0%
1
12
115.00-3.8%
3
5
120.000.4%
1
3
125.004.6%
5
1
130.008.8%
114
0
135.0012.9%
11
0
140.0017.1%
6
0
145.0021.3%
2
0
150.0025.5%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.45
21 Aug
21d
0.40
18 Sep
49d
0.36
18 Dec
140d
0.34
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes97%
Open interest97%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 79 / 79
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $92689 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+52
1W price+2.7%
Call premium83%
Put premium17%
Notional split
C 83% / P 17%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
41/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 14 contracts traded, $26785 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$26785
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 29 contracts traded, $14318 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$14318
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $12710 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$12710
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $10310 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$10310
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $10200 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$10200
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close122.75
1W+2.7%
RS8.4
Fair value+47.1%
Options pressure52
Speculation12
Volatility53
Trend fit41
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:59
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.6%
30 Jul 06:10
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 05:35
Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 14:50
Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 5.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike80.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike100.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 16
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 13
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 12
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike125.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 5
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.40
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.40
Put-call1.77
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.09
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts3
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.47
Skew0.00
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.39
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.28
Skew-0.08
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.38
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMCRI260918P00155000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.60
ContractMCRI261218P00155000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.35
ContractMCRI260918P00135000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike135.00
Volume-
OI8
IV0.36
ContractMCRI260821C00115000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike115.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.42
ContractMCRI260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.00
ContractMCRI260918C00140000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike140.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.34
ContractMCRI260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.05
ContractMCRI261218P00080000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.60
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.