Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
SRL options intelligence
Scully Royalty Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
73
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 22:26 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
SRL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 73/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 173.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 3.14.
Expected move
173.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
3.14
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-5.0%
RS -30.3
Expected move
173.8%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
3.14
Reference IV
4.70
Max pain
2.50
Underlying
5.04
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
6
Research Brief
SRL has a volatility chain read with 73/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.00–13.78; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.
Priced range0.00–13.78
Call concentration2.50
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 0.00 to 13.78. Max pain at 2.50 sits inside that range, 50.3% below spot. The theoretical downside extends below zero, so the displayed lower bound is floored at 0.00.
Spot
Max pain
0.005.04 ± 8.7513.78
Confirmation level
A close beyond 13.78 or below 0.00 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 73/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation98 × 22%
+21.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
2.50-50.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
4.70
18 Sep
50d
1.02
16 Oct
78d
1.28
15 Jan
169d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
Comparable strike volatility is unavailable.
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 18 Sep 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes83%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 6 / 6
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1500 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-5.0%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
3.14
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $1000 estimated gross traded notional, and 67% of visible notional.
$1000
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $500 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$500
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close5.04
1W-5.0%
RS-30.3
Fair value-25.2%
Options pressure100
Speculation98
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 0/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 0/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 0/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:46
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 33.8%
30 Jul 11:23
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 32.9%
30 Jul 21:26
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 173.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts1
Avg IV4.70
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts4
Avg IV1.02
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts1
Avg IV1.28
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV4.70
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV-
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSRL270115C00002500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI2
IV1.28
ContractSRL260918P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI1
IV4.70
ContractSRL261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.50
ContractSRL261016C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.50
ContractSRL261016C00007500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume20
OI3
IV0.25
ContractSRL261016C00005000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume2
OI1
IV2.85
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.