Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
APA options intelligence
APA Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
54
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 10:31 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
APA currently carries bullish options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
6.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.18
Call-side skew
Trend fit
22
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.2%
RS 16.9
Expected move
6.8%
Put-call volume
0.18
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.61
Max pain
34.50
Underlying
37.32
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
648
Research Brief
APA has a bullish chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 34.79–39.85; The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 32.00. The most active strike by current volume is 37.00.
Priced range34.79–39.85
Call concentration40.00
Put concentration32.00
Max pain reference34.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 34.79 to 39.85. Max pain at 34.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
34.7937.32 ± 2.5339.85
Confirmation level
A close beyond 39.85 or below 34.79 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 54/100
Pressure is 76/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure76 × 42%
+31.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement22 × 26%
+5.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility70 × 10%
+7.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 32.00. The most active strike by current volume is 37.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
71
30.00-19.6%
2
81
31.00-16.9%
7
312
32.00-14.3%
2
39
33.00-11.6%
288
41
33.50-10.2%
40
131
34.00-8.9%
28
16
34.50-7.6%
14
89
35.00-6.2%
134
32
35.50-4.9%
91
153
36.00-3.5%
305
11
36.50-2.2%
30
32
37.00-0.9%
246
36
37.500.5%
27
4
38.001.8%
662
2
39.004.5%
302
8
40.007.2%
766
3
41.009.9%
63
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.61
7 Aug
7d
0.54
14 Aug
14d
0.51
21 Aug
21d
0.50
28 Aug
28d
0.49
4 Sep
35d
0.48
11 Sep
42d
0.47
18 Sep
49d
0.46
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
30
31
32
32
33
34
34
35
36
36
37
38
38
39
40
40
41
42
42
43
44
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 648 / 648
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+76
1W price+3.2%
Call premium93%
Put premium7%
Notional split
C 93% / P 7%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
22/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 414 contracts traded, $618780 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$618780
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1859 contracts traded, $467676 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$467676
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 555 contracts traded, $375396 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$375396
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 160 contracts traded, $49126 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$49126
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 125 contracts traded, $43332 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$43332
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close37.32
1W+3.2%
RS16.9
Fair value+37.9%
Options pressure76
Speculation41
Volatility70
Trend fit22
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:24
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 4.4%
30 Jul 10:20
Bullish
Pressure 70
Move 3.7%
31 Jul 13:17
Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 2.4%
31 Jul 15:33
Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 1.7%
31 Jul 16:46
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 2.1%
1 Aug 09:31
Bullish
Pressure 76
Move 6.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike23.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike24.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 37
Strike26.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike27.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike28.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike29.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 32
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.61
Put-call0.34
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.35
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.34
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.50
Put-call2.44
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.87
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.61
Skew-0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.55
Skew0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.50
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.49
Skew-
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.48
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAPA260918C00037500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike37.50
Volume1857
OI3066
IV0.46
ContractAPA260821C00042500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike42.50
Volume221
OI385
IV0.50
ContractAPA280121C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike25.00
Volume200
OI519
IV0.40
ContractAPA280121C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike40.00
Volume164
OI447
IV0.44
ContractAPA260918C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume159
OI4627
IV0.46
ContractAPA281215C00027500
SideCall
Expiry15 Dec 2028
Strike27.50
Volume150
OI229
IV0.41
ContractAPA281215C00042500
SideCall
Expiry15 Dec 2028
Strike42.50
Volume150
OI33
IV0.43
ContractAPA260807C00037500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike37.50
Volume108
OI27
IV0.62
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.