Ticker Options Intelligence

MBB options intelligence

ISHARES MBS ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 3 Aug 2026 12:02 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

MBB currently carries bullish options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.34.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 1.1%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.34

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.2%

RS -9.1

Expected move 1.1%
Put-call volume 0.00
Volume / OI 0.34
Reference IV 0.04
Max pain 93.00
Underlying 92.92
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 200

Research Brief

MBB has a bullish chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 91.90–93.94; The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 93.00. The most active strike by current volume is 92.00.

Priced range91.90–93.94
Call concentration95.00
Put concentration93.00
Max pain reference93.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 91.90 to 93.94. Max pain at 93.00 sits inside that range, 0.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
91.9092.92 ± 1.0293.94
Confirmation level

A close beyond 93.94 or below 91.90 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 97/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure97 × 42%
+40.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation48 × 22%
+10.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility7 × 10%
+0.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 93.00. The most active strike by current volume is 92.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
83.00-10.7%
0
0
84.00-9.6%
0
0
85.00-8.5%
0
0
86.00-7.4%
0
0
87.00-6.4%
0
0
88.00-5.3%
0
0
89.00-4.2%
0
0
90.00-3.1%
0
0
91.00-2.1%
0
0
92.00-1.0%
0
1
93.000.1%
0
0
94.001.2%
2
0
95.002.2%
4
0
96.003.3%
2
0
97.004.4%
0
0
98.005.5%
0
0
99.006.5%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$100,867Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak94.00+$96,122
Negative peak96.00-$48,728
Nearest balance92.15Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
83.00-10.7%
-$33
84.00-9.6%
-$144
86.00-7.4%
-$11,276
88.00-5.3%
-$118
90.00-3.1%
+$20
92.00-1.0%
-$9,828
93.000.1%
+$53,719
94.001.2%
+$96,122
95.002.2%
+$5,819
96.003.3%
-$48,728
97.004.4%
+$2,926
98.005.5%
+$2,297
99.006.5%
+$1,199
101.008.7%
+$8,749
105.0013.0%
+$50
107.0015.2%
+$70
108.0016.2%
+$23
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.72× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.04 21 Aug 21d
0.05 18 Sep 49d
0.05 18 Dec 140d
0.06 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

83
84
85
87
88
89
90
91
93
94
95
96
97
99
100
101
102
103
105
106
107
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
200 / 200
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Call activity against legacy put OI

62/100
Primary intent Call activity against legacy put OI

Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13,089 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · atm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+97
1W price-0.2%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.34 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 201 contracts traded, $13,065 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$13,065
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $24 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$24

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close92.92
1W-0.2%
RS-9.1
Fair value+5.5%
Options pressure97
Speculation48
Volatility7
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 1.1% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 0/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 0/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 0/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.34 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 12:43 Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 1.3%
30 Jul 12:39 Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 1.0%
31 Jul 12:05 Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 0.9%
3 Aug 11:02 Bullish
Pressure 97
Move 1.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike83.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike84.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike86.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike87.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike88.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike89.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.04
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.05
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.05
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts50
Avg IV0.06
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.02
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.09
Skew0.08
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.09
Skew0.06
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.10
Skew0.09

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMBB260918C00093000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike93.00
Volume201
OI20
IV0.03
ContractMBB260821P00092000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike92.00
Volume1
OI-
IV0.02
ContractMBB260918P00086000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike86.00
Volume-
OI200
IV0.09
ContractMBB260918C00101000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike101.00
Volume-
OI114
IV0.09
ContractMBB260918P00096000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike96.00
Volume-
OI81
IV0.14
ContractMBB260918C00097000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike97.00
Volume-
OI42
IV0.04
ContractMBB261218C00094000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike94.00
Volume-
OI37
IV0.02
ContractMBB260918P00095000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI15
IV0.11

Research Graph

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