Ticker Options Intelligence

LUV options intelligence

Southwest Airlines Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 20:36 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

LUV currently carries bearish options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 4.4%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 2.29

Put-side skew

Trend fit 72

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -0.2%

RS 4.7

Expected move 4.4%
Put-call volume 2.29
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.40
Max pain 47.00
Underlying 44.97
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 684

Research Brief

LUV has a bearish chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 42.98–46.96; The largest call open-interest concentration is 49.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 44.00.

Priced range42.98–46.96
Call concentration49.00
Put concentration40.00
Max pain reference47.00
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 42.98 to 46.96. Max pain at 47.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
42.9844.97 ± 1.9946.96
Confirmation level

A close beyond 46.96 or below 42.98 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 36/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure36 × 42%
+15.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement72 × 26%
+18.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility46 × 10%
+4.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 49.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 44.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
73
39.00-13.3%
2
381
40.00-11.1%
4
351
42.00-6.6%
0
63
43.50-3.3%
3
109
44.00-2.2%
1
159
45.000.1%
15
81
45.501.2%
43
70
46.002.3%
99
55
46.503.4%
3
165
47.004.5%
146
20
47.505.6%
66
45
48.006.7%
61
3
49.009.0%
245
0
49.5010.1%
93
87
50.0011.2%
136
2
51.0013.4%
84
0
53.0017.9%
99
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.87× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.40 7 Aug 7d
0.45 14 Aug 14d
0.41 21 Aug 21d
0.40 28 Aug 28d
0.43 4 Sep 35d
0.38 11 Sep 42d
0.43 18 Sep 49d
0.44 18 Dec 140d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

36
37
39
40
41
41
42
43
43
44
45
45
46
47
48
48
49
50
50
52
53
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
684 / 684
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

73/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow before price confirmation

Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $957867 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · atm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-36
1W price-0.2%
Call premium31%
Put premium69%
Notional split C 31% / P 69% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 72/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 1072 contracts traded, $288904 estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$288904
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 1095 contracts traded, $176939 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$176939
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM puts cluster with 1766 contracts traded, $113897 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$113897
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 729 contracts traded, $109883 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$109883
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 185 contracts traded, $58954 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$58954

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close44.97
1W-0.2%
RS4.7
Fair value+39.4%
Options pressure-36
Speculation41
Volatility46
Trend fit72

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 4.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.40 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 2.29 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:19 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 10:13 Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 3.6%
30 Jul 23:25 Bearish
Pressure -23
Move 2.7%
31 Jul 00:09 Bearish
Pressure -23
Move 2.7%
31 Jul 13:48 Bearish
Pressure -23
Move 2.2%
31 Jul 14:49 Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 1.6%
31 Jul 16:12 Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 1.4%
31 Jul 16:29 Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 1.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike36.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike37.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike38.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike39.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 73
Strike39.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 16 · OI 381

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.40
Put-call7.68
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.45
Put-call3.22
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.41
Put-call3.12
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.40
Put-call5.20
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.32

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.43
Skew0.04
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.48
Skew0.09
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.30
Skew-0.05
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.39
Skew-
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.45
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractLUV260807P00044000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike44.00
Volume1715
OI109
IV0.42
ContractLUV260918P00045000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume1072
OI2543
IV0.42
ContractLUV260918C00047500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike47.50
Volume1006
OI3447
IV0.40
ContractLUV260821P00044500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike44.50
Volume324
OI90
IV0.41
ContractLUV260814P00045000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume305
OI78
IV0.43
ContractLUV260821P00040000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume142
OI510
IV0.45
ContractLUV260814C00046000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike46.00
Volume106
OI1409
IV0.42
ContractLUV260918P00037500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike37.50
Volume89
OI2952
IV0.44