Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
EXPE options intelligence
Expedia Group Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
56
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 05:38 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
EXPE currently carries bearish options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
3.0%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
2.18
Put-side skew
Trend fit
96
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-3.3%
RS -0.2
Expected move
3.0%
Put-call volume
2.18
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.58
Max pain
275.00
Underlying
259.94
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1454
Research Brief
EXPE has a bearish chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 252.11–267.77; The largest call open-interest concentration is 295.00; the largest put concentration is 300.00. The most active strike by current volume is 300.00.
Priced range252.11–267.77
Call concentration295.00
Put concentration300.00
Max pain reference275.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 252.11 to 267.77. Max pain at 275.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
252.11259.94 ± 7.83267.77
Confirmation level
A close beyond 267.77 or below 252.11 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 56/100
Pressure is 39/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure39 × 42%
+16.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement96 × 26%
+25.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility52 × 10%
+5.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 295.00; the largest put concentration is 300.00. The most active strike by current volume is 300.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
208
125.00-51.9%
0
90
155.00-40.4%
3
71
175.00-32.7%
0
137
180.00-30.8%
1
51
255.00-1.9%
53
58
260.000.0%
177
62
265.001.9%
69
29
270.003.9%
137
27
275.005.8%
115
24
277.506.8%
155
53
280.007.7%
57
11
285.009.6%
105
15
290.0011.6%
90
11
295.0013.5%
270
448
300.0015.4%
31
10
310.0019.3%
148
63
315.0021.2%
93
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.58
31 Jul
1d
0.95
7 Aug
8d
0.77
14 Aug
15d
0.67
21 Aug
22d
0.62
28 Aug
29d
0.60
4 Sep
36d
0.56
11 Sep
43d
0.55
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
210
220
225
235
238
243
248
250
255
258
263
268
270
275
278
283
288
290
295
300
310
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1454 / 1454
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.0M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-39
1W price-3.3%
Call premium63%
Put premium37%
Notional split
C 63% / P 37%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
96/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 237 contracts traded, $464765 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$464765
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 465 contracts traded, $298546 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$298546
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 22 contracts traded, $285315 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$285315
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 81 contracts traded, $261000 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$261000
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 22 contracts traded, $249800 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$249800
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close259.94
1W-3.3%
RS-0.2
Fair value+47.7%
Options pressure-39
Speculation41
Volatility52
Trend fit96
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:15
Volatility
Pressure -59
Move 14.2%
30 Jul 10:11
Volatility
Pressure -57
Move 17.0%
31 Jul 04:38
Bearish
Pressure -39
Move 3.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 208
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 40
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 28
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 25
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 23
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 35 · OI 90
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 6 · OI 33
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts112
Avg IV0.58
Put-call5.49
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts140
Avg IV0.95
Put-call4.29
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts138
Avg IV0.77
Put-call1.16
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts130
Avg IV0.67
Put-call1.34
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.62
Put-call2.07
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.88
Skew0.38
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.88
Put IV0.92
Skew0.04
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.77
Skew0.07
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.66
Skew0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.60
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractEXPE260731P00300000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike300.00
Volume179
OI448
IV0.53
ContractEXPE260918P00250000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike250.00
Volume158
OI698
IV0.55
ContractEXPE260918C00300000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike300.00
Volume152
OI157
IV0.52
ContractEXPE260918P00260000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike260.00
Volume77
OI75
IV0.54
ContractEXPE260731P00282500
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike282.50
Volume72
OI18
IV0.29
ContractEXPE260814P00285000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike285.00
Volume62
OI-
IV0.73
ContractEXPE260731P00175000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike175.00
Volume61
OI71
IV3.18
ContractEXPE260807P00285000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike285.00
Volume61
OI39
IV0.92
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.