Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
ARES options intelligence
Ares Management LP options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
34
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 18:39 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
ARES currently carries mixed options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.
Expected move
4.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.08
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.95
Balanced tape
Trend fit
70
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.7%
RS -16.0
Expected move
4.1%
Put-call volume
0.95
Volume / OI
0.08
Reference IV
0.73
Max pain
124.00
Underlying
126.51
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
547
Research Brief
ARES has a mixed chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 121.26–131.76; The largest call open-interest concentration is 130.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 105.00.
Priced range121.26–131.76
Call concentration130.00
Put concentration105.00
Max pain reference124.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 121.26 to 131.76. Max pain at 124.00 sits inside that range, 2.0% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
121.26126.51 ± 5.25131.76
Confirmation level
A close beyond 131.76 or below 121.26 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 34/100
Pressure is 1/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure1 × 42%
+0.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement70 × 26%
+18.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 130.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 105.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
34
100.00-21.0%
7
112
102.00-19.4%
0
302
105.00-17.0%
0
63
108.00-14.6%
0
88
112.00-11.5%
0
51
113.00-10.7%
0
68
115.00-9.1%
1
2
118.00-6.7%
24
25
120.00-5.1%
5
30
121.00-4.4%
0
27
125.00-1.2%
20
23
126.00-0.4%
17
4
130.002.8%
202
0
133.005.1%
35
0
135.006.7%
80
0
139.009.9%
26
0
140.0010.7%
34
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.73
31 Jul
1d
0.60
7 Aug
8d
0.53
14 Aug
15d
0.51
21 Aug
22d
0.53
28 Aug
29d
0.50
18 Sep
50d
0.49
20 Nov
113d
0.49
18 Dec
141d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
117
119
121
123
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
150
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest99%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 547 / 547
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $7.8M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+1
1W price+0.7%
Call premium33%
Put premium67%
Notional split
C 33% / P 67%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.08
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
70/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
31 Jul
Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 947 contracts traded, $3.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$3.9M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 407 contracts traded, $1.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$1.7M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1225 contracts traded, $610984 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$610984
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 94 contracts traded, $512580 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$512580
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 743 contracts traded, $454882 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$454882
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close126.51
1W+0.7%
RS-16.0
Fair value-6.6%
Options pressure1
Speculation42
Volatility68
Trend fit70
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:11
Volatility
Pressure -15
Move 5.7%
30 Jul 10:06
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 5.5%
30 Jul 17:39
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 4.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 7
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 19
Strike96.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike99.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike100.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 7
Puts · V 2 · OI 34
Strike101.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike102.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 112
Strike103.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 11
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.73
Put-call2.36
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.60
Put-call0.30
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.53
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.73
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.53
Put-call1.83
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.14
Put IV0.70
Skew-0.43
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.56
Skew-0.05
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.52
Skew-0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.50
Skew0.00
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.57
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractARES260828C00131000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike131.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.54
ContractARES260731C00175000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike175.00
Volume-
OI-
IV3.23
ContractARES260731C00155000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI-
IV2.43
ContractARES260821C00112000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike112.00
Volume-
OI121
IV0.53
ContractARES260731P00102000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike102.00
Volume-
OI112
IV2.09
ContractARES260821C00095000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI67
IV1.08
ContractARES270219C00190000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike190.00
Volume-
OI50
IV0.56
ContractARES270319P00095000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI47
IV0.51
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.