Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
APO options intelligence
Apollo Global Management LLC Class A options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
34
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 20:33 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
APO currently carries mixed options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
4.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.78
Balanced tape
Trend fit
48
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.8%
RS -11.4
Expected move
4.7%
Put-call volume
0.78
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.47
Max pain
120.00
Underlying
122.61
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
620
Research Brief
APO has a mixed chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 116.88–128.34; The largest call open-interest concentration is 133.00; the largest put concentration is 120.00. The most active strike by current volume is 133.00.
Priced range116.88–128.34
Call concentration133.00
Put concentration120.00
Max pain reference120.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 116.88 to 128.34. Max pain at 120.00 sits inside that range, 2.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
116.88122.61 ± 5.73128.34
Confirmation level
A close beyond 128.34 or below 116.88 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 34/100
Pressure is 16/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure16 × 42%
+6.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility51 × 10%
+5.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 133.00; the largest put concentration is 120.00. The most active strike by current volume is 133.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
282
105.00-14.4%
0
27
112.00-8.7%
90
119
113.00-7.8%
90
168
115.00-6.2%
22
129
117.00-4.6%
20
168
118.00-3.8%
54
228
119.00-2.9%
132
559
120.00-2.1%
269
126
121.00-1.3%
155
150
122.00-0.5%
300
26
123.000.3%
46
114
124.001.1%
170
23
125.001.9%
199
9
126.002.8%
79
13
128.004.4%
105
12
130.006.0%
401
0
133.008.5%
544
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.47
31 Jul
0d
0.53
7 Aug
7d
0.49
14 Aug
14d
0.43
21 Aug
21d
0.52
28 Aug
28d
0.47
4 Sep
35d
0.41
18 Sep
49d
0.40
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
100
103
105
107
109
111
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
133
135
139
141
143
145
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 620 / 620
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $23.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+16
1W price+1.8%
Call premium35%
Put premium65%
Notional split
C 35% / P 65%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
48/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3028 contracts traded, $10.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$10.9M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 4204 contracts traded, $5.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$5.7M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 644 contracts traded, $3.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$3.0M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1227 contracts traded, $795609 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$795609
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 159 contracts traded, $706265 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$706265
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close122.61
1W+1.8%
RS-11.4
Fair value+0.8%
Options pressure16
Speculation42
Volatility51
Trend fit48
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 64
Move 3.3%
30 Jul 03:03
Bearish
Pressure -19
Move 2.8%
30 Jul 17:11
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 3.2%
31 Jul 02:51
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 3.2%
31 Jul 13:47
Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 2.3%
31 Jul 19:33
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 4.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 2
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 21
Strike102.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 11
Puts · V 1 · OI 14
Strike103.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts75
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.53
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts49
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.41
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.49
Put-call1.33
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts57
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.34
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.52
Put-call1.39
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.82
Put IV1.35
Skew0.53
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.54
Skew0.04
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.51
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.47
Skew0.07
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.51
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAPO260828P00080000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI-
IV1.21
ContractAPO261120P00070000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI180
IV0.57
ContractAPO270115P00210000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI148
IV0.00
ContractAPO260814C00117000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike117.00
Volume-
OI126
IV0.55
ContractAPO260814C00116000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike116.00
Volume-
OI80
IV0.56
ContractAPO270617C00185000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike185.00
Volume-
OI36
IV0.40
ContractAPO270617C00115000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike115.00
Volume-
OI22
IV0.43
ContractAPO260821C00116000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike116.00
Volume-
OI16
IV0.47
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.