Ticker Options Intelligence

XPEL options intelligence

Xpel Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 35 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 18:14 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

XPEL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 16.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.50

Call-side skew

Trend fit 37

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +3.8%

RS -6.5

Expected move 16.6%
Put-call volume 0.50
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.87
Max pain 45.00
Underlying 44.37
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 132

Research Brief

XPEL has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 37.02–51.72; The largest call open-interest concentration is 52.50; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 52.50.

Priced range37.02–51.72
Call concentration52.50
Put concentration45.00
Max pain reference45.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 37.02 to 51.72. Max pain at 45.00 sits inside that range, 1.4% above spot.

Spot Max pain
37.0244.37 ± 7.3551.72
Confirmation level

A close beyond 51.72 or below 37.02 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 35/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 38/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure38 × 42%
+15.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement37 × 26%
+9.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score35.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 52.50; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 52.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
27.50-38.0%
0
1
30.00-32.4%
0
0
32.50-26.8%
0
25
35.00-21.1%
0
38
37.50-15.5%
0
29
40.00-9.8%
0
8
42.50-4.2%
1
84
45.001.4%
14
2
47.507.1%
8
0
50.0012.7%
10
1
52.5018.3%
25
0
55.0024.0%
7
0
57.5029.6%
1
0
60.0035.2%
2
0
65.0046.5%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.49× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.87 21 Aug 21d
0.66 18 Sep 49d
0.60 16 Oct 77d
0.58 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

38
40
43
45
48
50
53
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
132 / 132
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

93/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $405 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+38
1W price+3.8%
Call premium54%
Put premium46%
Notional split C 54% / P 46% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 37/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $220 estimated gross traded notional, and 54% of visible notional.
$220
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $185 estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$185

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close44.37
1W+3.8%
RS-6.5
Fair value-1.0%
Options pressure38
Speculation1
Volatility96
Trend fit37

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 16.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.87 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.50 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:10 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 17.6%
30 Jul 10:56 Volatility
Pressure -95
Move 18.0%
31 Jul 08:01 Volatility
Pressure 97
Move 16.8%
1 Aug 17:14 Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 16.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike32.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 25
Strike37.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 38
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 29
Strike42.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 84

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.87
Put-call0.50
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.66
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.60
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts36
Avg IV0.58
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.83
Put IV0.91
Skew0.08
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.69
Skew0.03
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.64
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.58
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractXPEL260821C00052500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike52.50
Volume2
OI25
IV0.83
ContractXPEL260821P00040000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume1
OI29
IV0.91
ContractXPEL260918C00047500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike47.50
Volume-
OI406
IV0.65
ContractXPEL261016P00035000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI210
IV0.61
ContractXPEL270115C00055000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI200
IV0.54
ContractXPEL260821P00045000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI84
IV0.85
ContractXPEL260821P00037500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike37.50
Volume-
OI38
IV0.31
ContractXPEL261016P00032500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike32.50
Volume-
OI37
IV0.28