Ticker Options Intelligence

STWD options intelligence

Starwood Property Trust Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 27 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:14 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

STWD currently carries mixed options pressure with a 27/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 5.6%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.69

Call-side skew

Trend fit 65

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -3.3%

RS -16.1

Expected move 5.6%
Put-call volume 0.69
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.23
Max pain 17.00
Underlying 16.52
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 190

Research Brief

STWD has a mixed chain read with 27/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 15.59–17.45; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00.

Priced range15.59–17.45
Call concentration17.00
Put concentration16.00
Max pain reference17.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 15.59 to 17.45. Max pain at 17.00 sits inside that range, 2.9% above spot.

Spot Max pain
15.5916.52 ± 0.9317.45
Confirmation level

A close beyond 17.45 or below 15.59 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 27/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 7/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure7 × 42%
+2.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation15 × 22%
+3.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement65 × 26%
+16.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility39 × 10%
+3.9

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score26.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
9.00-45.5%
2
0
10.00-39.5%
0
0
11.00-33.4%
0
0
12.00-27.4%
0
0
13.00-21.3%
0
0
14.00-15.3%
0
90
15.00-9.2%
11
922
16.00-3.1%
64
429
17.002.9%
2277
0
18.009.0%
375
0
19.0015.0%
8
0
20.0021.1%
0
0
21.0027.1%
0
0
22.0033.2%
0
0
23.0039.2%
2
0
24.0045.3%
1
0
25.0051.3%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

0.99× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.23 21 Aug 22d
0.22 18 Sep 50d
0.22 18 Dec 141d
0.24 15 Jan 169d
0.22 19 Mar 232d
0.24 21 Jan 540d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

14
15
16
17
18
19
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
190 / 190
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

60/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $136149 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+7
1W price-3.3%
Call premium33%
Put premium67%
Notional split C 33% / P 67% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 65/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 165 contracts traded, $41020 estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$41020
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1521 contracts traded, $33365 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$33365
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 160 contracts traded, $27925 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$27925
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 812 contracts traded, $17080 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$17080
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $5262 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$5262

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close15.98
1W-3.3%
RS-16.1
Fair value-5.5%
Options pressure7
Speculation15
Volatility39
Trend fit65

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.6% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.23 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.69 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:34 Bullish
Pressure 71
Move 4.1%
30 Jul 06:53 Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 4.5%
31 Jul 10:14 Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 5.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 61 · OI 90
Strike16.00
Calls · V 14 · OI 64
Puts · V 751 · OI 922

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.23
Put-call5.51
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.22
Put-call1.16
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.51
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts30
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.06
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.43

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.21
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.24
Skew0.05
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.25
Skew0.09
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.29
Skew0.14
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.26
Skew0.12

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSTWD270115C00018000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike18.00
Volume1039
OI3605
IV0.15
ContractSTWD260821P00016000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume751
OI922
IV0.21
ContractSTWD261218C00018000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike18.00
Volume319
OI2114
IV0.16
ContractSTWD261218P00018000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike18.00
Volume151
OI714
IV0.34
ContractSTWD260918P00018000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike18.00
Volume150
OI999
IV0.25
ContractSTWD260918C00017000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.00
Volume138
OI1563
IV0.19
ContractSTWD260821C00017000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.00
Volume134
OI2277
IV0.22
ContractSTWD280121C00018000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike18.00
Volume104
OI2156
IV0.10