Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PCYO options intelligence
Pure Cycle Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
68
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 13:27 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
PCYO currently carries bearish options pressure with a 68/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.76.
Expected move
13.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.76
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
203.00
Put-side skew
Trend fit
32
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-1.6%
RS -12.0
Expected move
13.2%
Put-call volume
203.00
Volume / OI
0.76
Reference IV
0.41
Max pain
10.00
Underlying
10.51
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
68
Research Brief
PCYO has a bearish chain read with 68/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.12–11.90; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.
Priced range9.12–11.90
Call concentration2.50
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 9.12 to 11.90. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 4.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
9.1210.51 ± 1.3911.90
Confirmation level
A close beyond 11.90 or below 9.12 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 68/100
Pressure is 96/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure96 × 42%
+40.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation58 × 22%
+12.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement32 × 26%
+8.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
2.50-76.2%
1
1
5.00-52.4%
0
0
7.50-28.6%
0
80
10.00-4.9%
1
0
12.5018.9%
0
0
15.0042.7%
0
0
17.5066.5%
0
0
20.0090.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$5,423Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.50+$2,441
Negative peak10.00-$7,861
Nearest balance11.91Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-76.2%
+$0
5.00-52.4%
-$4
10.00-4.9%
-$7,861
12.5018.9%
+$2,441
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.41
21 Aug
21d
0.33
18 Sep
49d
0.37
18 Dec
140d
0.30
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
10
13
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 68 / 68
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4,873 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · otm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-96
1W price-1.6%
Call premium17%
Put premium83%
Notional split
C 17% / P 83%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.76
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
32/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 402 contracts traded, $4,010 estimated gross traded notional, and 82% of visible notional.
$4,010
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $815 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$815
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $40 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$40
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $8 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$8
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close10.51
1W-1.6%
RS-12.0
Fair value-1.3%
Options pressure-96
Speculation58
Volatility68
Trend fit32
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:39
Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 12.6%
30 Jul 11:18
Bearish
Pressure -98
Move 8.8%
31 Jul 13:17
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 11.6%
3 Aug 12:27
Bearish
Pressure -96
Move 13.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 400 · OI 80
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.41
Put-call402.00
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.33
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.30
Skew-0.07
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.32
Skew0.08
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.80
Skew0.66
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.10
Put IV0.05
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPCYO260821P00010000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume400
OI80
IV0.30
ContractPCYO261218P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume4
OI-
IV0.54
ContractPCYO260821P00002500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume2
OI2
IV2.57
ContractPCYO260918C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume1
OI296
IV0.24
ContractPCYO260821C00002500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume1
OI1
IV4.01
ContractPCYO260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI136
IV0.32
ContractPCYO261218P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.80
ContractPCYO260918P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.90
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.