Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CFR options intelligence
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
42
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 12:11 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
CFR currently carries bullish options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
4.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.30
Call-side skew
Trend fit
34
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.3%
RS 13.9
Expected move
4.3%
Put-call volume
0.30
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.24
Max pain
155.00
Underlying
166.34
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
198
Research Brief
CFR has a bullish chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 159.11–173.57; The largest call open-interest concentration is 165.00; the largest put concentration is 150.00. The most active strike by current volume is 160.00.
Priced range159.11–173.57
Call concentration165.00
Put concentration150.00
Max pain reference155.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 159.11 to 173.57. Max pain at 155.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
159.11166.34 ± 7.23173.57
Confirmation level
A close beyond 173.57 or below 159.11 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 42/100
Pressure is 62/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure62 × 42%
+26.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation17 × 22%
+3.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement34 × 26%
+8.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 165.00; the largest put concentration is 150.00. The most active strike by current volume is 160.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
90.00-45.9%
0
0
95.00-42.9%
0
0
100.00-39.9%
0
0
105.00-36.9%
0
0
110.00-33.9%
0
0
115.00-30.9%
0
0
120.00-27.9%
0
0
125.00-24.9%
0
1
140.00-15.8%
0
0
145.00-12.8%
2
10
150.00-9.8%
1
2
155.00-6.8%
31
5
160.00-3.8%
7
0
165.00-0.8%
36
0
170.002.2%
5
0
175.005.2%
15
0
185.0011.2%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$414,263Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak185.00+$206,278
Negative peak155.00-$20,632
Nearest balance159.36Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
100.00-39.9%
-$30
105.00-36.9%
-$30
110.00-33.9%
-$43
115.00-30.9%
-$23
120.00-27.9%
-$13
125.00-24.9%
-$15
130.00-21.8%
+$56
135.00-18.8%
+$126
140.00-15.8%
-$242
145.00-12.8%
+$2,891
150.00-9.8%
+$4,170
155.00-6.8%
-$20,632
160.00-3.8%
+$3,044
165.00-0.8%
+$71,048
170.002.2%
+$11,474
175.005.2%
+$63,443
180.008.2%
+$70,575
185.0011.2%
+$206,278
190.0014.2%
+$1,512
195.0017.2%
+$643
200.0020.2%
+$99
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.24
21 Aug
17d
0.23
18 Sep
45d
0.22
16 Oct
73d
0.23
15 Jan
164d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 198 / 198
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $23,965 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+62
1W price+1.3%
Call premium97%
Put premium3%
Notional split
C 97% / P 3%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
34/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $12,330 estimated gross traded notional, and 51% of visible notional.
$12,330
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $6,120 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$6,120
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $2,295 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$2,295
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1,445 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$1,445
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $950 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$950
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close166.34
1W+1.3%
RS13.9
Fair value+42.2%
Options pressure62
Speculation17
Volatility34
Trend fit34
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:30
Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 6.3%
30 Jul 10:25
Bearish
Pressure -92
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 15:23
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 6.9%
30 Jul 15:48
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 6.9%
30 Jul 19:59
Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 7.7%
31 Jul 16:01
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 9.3%
2 Aug 18:20
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.3%
4 Aug 10:41
Bullish
Pressure 78
Move 4.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.77
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts54
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.21
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.23
Skew0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.24
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.26
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCFR260821C00175000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike175.00
Volume10
OI15
IV0.22
ContractCFR260821P00160000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume10
OI5
IV0.25
ContractCFR261016C00150000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike150.00
Volume6
OI16
IV0.25
ContractCFR261016C00175000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike175.00
Volume6
OI4
IV0.20
ContractCFR261016C00165000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike165.00
Volume4
OI12
IV0.22
ContractCFR261016C00170000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike170.00
Volume4
OI2
IV0.22
ContractCFR260821C00165000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike165.00
Volume2
OI36
IV0.25
ContractCFR260821C00170000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike170.00
Volume1
OI5
IV0.26
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.