Ticker Options Intelligence

EFC options intelligence

Ellington Financial Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 45 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 23:13 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

EFC currently carries bearish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 6.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 5.00

Put-side skew

Trend fit 47

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.3%

RS -3.6

Expected move 6.6%
Put-call volume 5.00
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.49
Max pain 15.00
Underlying 13.28
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 100

Research Brief

EFC has a bearish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.41–14.15; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.

Priced range12.41–14.15
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference15.00
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 12.41 to 14.15. Max pain at 15.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
12.4113.28 ± 0.8714.15
Confirmation level

A close beyond 14.15 or below 12.41 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 45/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 64/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure64 × 42%
+26.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation0 × 22%
+0.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement47 × 26%
+12.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility60 × 10%
+6.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
2.50-81.2%
0
0
5.00-62.3%
0
4
7.50-43.5%
0
1
10.00-24.7%
0
183
12.50-5.9%
2
34
15.0013.0%
97
0
17.5031.8%
1
0
20.0050.6%
0
0
22.5069.4%
0
1
25.0088.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.39× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.49 21 Aug 21d
0.20 18 Sep 49d
0.26 16 Oct 77d
0.26 18 Dec 140d
0.20 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

13
15
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
100 / 100
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow before price confirmation

Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $390 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-64
1W price+0.3%
Call premium3%
Put premium97%
Notional split C 3% / P 97% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 47/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $355 estimated gross traded notional, and 91% of visible notional.
$355
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $23 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$23
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $12 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$12

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close13.28
1W+0.3%
RS-3.6
Fair value+21.4%
Options pressure-64
Speculation0
Volatility60
Trend fit47

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.49 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 5.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 13.2%
30 Jul 10:52 Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 13.9%
31 Jul 02:21 Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 10.4%
1 Aug 22:13 Bearish
Pressure -64
Move 6.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 1 · OI 183
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 97
Puts · V 2 · OI 34
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.49
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.16
Skew-0.10
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.10
Skew-0.07
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.30
Skew0.17
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.29
Skew0.12
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.08
Put IV0.31
Skew0.22

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractEFC260821P00015000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume2
OI34
IV0.41
ContractEFC260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume2
OI-
IV1.72
ContractEFC261218C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume1
OI2415
IV0.17
ContractEFC260821P00012500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume1
OI183
IV0.16
ContractEFC261218P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI2064
IV0.23
ContractEFC261218P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI990
IV0.29
ContractEFC261218C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI778
IV0.14
ContractEFC261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI666
IV0.13