Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MSDL options intelligence
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 11:00 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
MSDL currently carries bearish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
4.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
28
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-3.7%
RS -12.9
Expected move
4.3%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
0.32
Max pain
15.00
Underlying
14.61
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
168
Research Brief
MSDL has a bearish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 13.99–15.23; The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 14.00.
Priced range13.99–15.23
Call concentration16.00
Put concentration14.00
Max pain reference15.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 13.99 to 15.23. Max pain at 15.00 sits inside that range, 2.7% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
13.9914.61 ± 0.6215.23
Confirmation level
A close beyond 15.23 or below 13.99 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation0 × 22%
+0.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement28 × 26%
+7.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility39 × 10%
+3.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 14.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
8.00-45.2%
0
0
9.00-38.4%
0
0
10.00-31.6%
0
0
11.00-24.7%
0
0
12.00-17.9%
2
0
13.00-11.0%
0
3301
14.00-4.2%
0
98
15.002.7%
228
0
16.009.5%
1585
0
17.0016.4%
9
0
18.0023.2%
8
0
19.0030.0%
0
0
20.0036.9%
0
1
21.0043.7%
0
0
22.0050.6%
0
0
23.0057.4%
0
0
24.0064.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$56,577Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$201,298
Negative peak14.00-$201,778
Nearest balance14.50Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-65.8%
-$11
10.00-31.6%
-$1,982
12.00-17.9%
-$86
13.00-11.0%
-$487
14.00-4.2%
-$201,778
15.002.7%
+$201,298
16.009.5%
+$50,150
17.0016.4%
+$1,962
18.0023.2%
+$412
19.0030.0%
+$5
20.0036.9%
+$7,151
22.0050.6%
-$17
25.0071.1%
-$2
27.0084.8%
-$44
30.00105.3%
+$7
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.32
21 Aug
21d
0.28
18 Sep
49d
0.18
18 Dec
140d
0.16
15 Jan
168d
0.24
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
12
13
14
15
16
17
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 168 / 168
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $930 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-100
1W price-3.7%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
28/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 30 contracts traded, $780 estimated gross traded notional, and 84% of visible notional.
$780
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 15 contracts traded, $150 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$150
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close14.61
1W-3.7%
RS-12.9
Fair value-11.7%
Options pressure-100
Speculation0
Volatility39
Trend fit28
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:09
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 7.2%
30 Jul 10:56
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 4.3%
31 Jul 10:40
Bearish
Pressure -52
Move 5.1%
3 Aug 10:00
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 4.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 15 · OI 3301
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 228
Puts · V 0 · OI 98
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.18
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.16
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.12
Skew0.05
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.08
Skew0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.05
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.05
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.47
Skew0.46
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMSDL261218P00012000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.00
Volume30
OI-
IV0.16
ContractMSDL260821P00014000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike14.00
Volume15
OI3301
IV0.12
ContractMSDL270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI2030
IV0.20
ContractMSDL260821C00016000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume-
OI1585
IV0.20
ContractMSDL270115P00010000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI932
IV0.26
ContractMSDL270115P00015000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI619
IV0.37
ContractMSDL260918C00016000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike16.00
Volume-
OI484
IV0.13
ContractMSDL270319C00015000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI276
IV0.01
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.