Ticker Options Intelligence

TIPT options intelligence

Tiptree Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 46 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 12:25 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

TIPT currently carries bearish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 5.5%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 14.50

Put-side skew

Trend fit 15

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.1%

RS -11.5

Expected move 5.5%
Put-call volume 14.50
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.35
Max pain 17.50
Underlying 17.77
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 96

Research Brief

TIPT has a bearish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 16.80–18.74; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 17.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.

Priced range16.80–18.74
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration17.50
Max pain reference17.50
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 16.80 to 18.74. Max pain at 17.50 sits inside that range, 1.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
16.8017.77 ± 0.9718.74
Confirmation level

A close beyond 18.74 or below 16.80 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 46/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 87/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure87 × 42%
+36.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation3 × 22%
+0.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement15 × 26%
+3.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility46 × 10%
+4.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 17.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-85.9%
0
0
5.00-71.9%
0
0
7.50-57.8%
0
0
10.00-43.7%
0
0
12.50-29.7%
0
0
15.00-15.6%
1
410
17.50-1.5%
232
0
20.0012.5%
111
0
22.5026.6%
0
0
25.0040.7%
0
0
30.0068.8%
0
0
35.0097.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.35 21 Aug 21d
0.25 18 Sep 49d
0.29 18 Dec 140d
0.27 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

15
18
20
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
96 / 96
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

91/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow before price confirmation

Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2815 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · atm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-87
1W price-0.1%
Call premium23%
Put premium77%
Notional split C 23% / P 77% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 15/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 48 contracts traded, $1680 estimated gross traded notional, and 60% of visible notional.
$1680
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $500 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$500
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $485 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$485
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $88 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$88
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $62 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$62

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close17.77
1W-0.1%
RS-11.5
Fair value-4.0%
Options pressure-87
Speculation3
Volatility46
Trend fit15

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.35 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 14.50 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:20 Bearish
Pressure -82
Move 7.7%
30 Jul 11:05 Bearish
Pressure -91
Move 7.3%
31 Jul 03:29 Bearish
Pressure -99
Move 8.6%
1 Aug 11:25 Bearish
Pressure -87
Move 5.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 232
Puts · V 48 · OI 410
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 111
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.35
Put-call48.00
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.25
Put-call3.33
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.27
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.29
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.26
Skew0.10
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.35
Skew-0.07
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.36
Skew0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTIPT260821P00017500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume48
OI410
IV0.29
ContractTIPT260918P00017500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume10
OI105
IV0.26
ContractTIPT260918C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume2
OI7
IV0.01
ContractTIPT260918C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume1
OI746
IV0.27
ContractTIPT260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume1
OI232
IV0.27
ContractTIPT261218P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI610
IV0.35
ContractTIPT260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI172
IV0.23
ContractTIPT260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI166
IV0.16