Ticker Options Intelligence

AFG options intelligence

American Financial Group, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 29 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:11 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

AFG currently carries mixed options pressure with a 29/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 5.4%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call -

Balanced tape

Trend fit 82

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -1.4%

RS -1.3

Expected move 5.4%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI -
Reference IV 0.28
Max pain 140.00
Underlying 143.76
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 184

Research Brief

AFG has a mixed chain read with 29/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 135.94–151.58; The largest call open-interest concentration is 145.00; the largest put concentration is 135.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00.

Priced range135.94–151.58
Call concentration145.00
Put concentration135.00
Max pain reference140.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 135.94 to 151.58. Max pain at 140.00 sits inside that range, 2.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
135.94143.76 ± 7.82151.58
Confirmation level

A close beyond 151.58 or below 135.94 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 29/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 9/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure9 × 42%
+3.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation0 × 22%
+0.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement82 × 26%
+21.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility42 × 10%
+4.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score29.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 145.00; the largest put concentration is 135.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
80.00-44.4%
0
0
85.00-40.9%
0
0
90.00-37.4%
0
0
95.00-33.9%
0
0
100.00-30.4%
0
0
105.00-27.0%
0
0
110.00-23.5%
0
2
115.00-20.0%
0
3
120.00-16.5%
0
0
125.00-13.0%
0
0
130.00-9.6%
0
18
135.00-6.1%
0
14
140.00-2.6%
5
0
145.000.9%
44
0
150.004.3%
22
0
155.007.8%
10
0
160.0011.3%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.29× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.28 21 Aug 22d
0.24 18 Sep 50d
0.22 18 Dec 141d
0.22 19 Mar 232d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
184 / 184
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Likely noise

29/100
Primary intent Likely noise

Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $0 of estimated gross traded notional, no dominant cluster, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+9
1W price-1.4%
Call premium0%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 0% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 82/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters No dominant cluster

No high-conviction option cluster is visible in this snapshot.

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close141.72
1W-1.4%
RS-1.3
Fair value+19.0%
Options pressure9
Speculation0
Volatility42
Trend fit82

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.4% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.28 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call - history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:26 Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 5.3%
30 Jul 10:22 Bearish
Pressure -91
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 10:11 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 5.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts46
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.32
Skew0.05
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.27
Skew0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.25
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.24
Skew0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAFG260918C00148500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike148.50
Volume-
OI71
IV0.24
ContractAFG260918C00103500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike103.50
Volume-
OI69
IV0.01
ContractAFG260821C00145000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike145.00
Volume-
OI44
IV0.27
ContractAFG260918C00133500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike133.50
Volume-
OI42
IV0.26
ContractAFG260918C00128500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike128.50
Volume-
OI31
IV0.28
ContractAFG261218C00145000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike145.00
Volume-
OI27
IV0.21
ContractAFG260918C00143500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike143.50
Volume-
OI24
IV0.25
ContractAFG261218C00130000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike130.00
Volume-
OI22
IV0.22