Ticker Options Intelligence

ALMS options intelligence

Alumis Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 59 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 20:38 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

ALMS currently carries volatility options pressure with a 59/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 30.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.20.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 30.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.20

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.31

Call-side skew

Trend fit 58

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.9%

RS 55.0

Expected move 30.9%
Put-call volume 0.31
Volume / OI 0.20
Reference IV 1.46
Max pain 28.00
Underlying 28.00
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 155

Research Brief

ALMS has a volatility chain read with 59/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 19.35–36.65; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range19.35–36.65
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference28.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 19.35 to 36.65. Max pain at 28.00 sits inside that range, 0.0% from spot.

Spot Max pain
19.3528.00 ± 8.6536.65
Confirmation level

A close beyond 36.65 or below 19.35 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 59/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 58/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure58 × 42%
+24.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation45 × 22%
+9.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement58 × 26%
+15.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score59.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
12
15.00-46.4%
0
4
19.00-32.1%
1
46
20.00-28.6%
1
40
21.00-25.0%
1
29
22.00-21.4%
23
14
23.00-17.9%
0
20
24.00-14.3%
0
97
25.00-10.7%
1
4
26.00-7.1%
57
10
27.00-3.6%
8
50
28.000.0%
48
0
29.003.6%
7
46
30.007.1%
2365
0
31.0010.7%
11
0
35.0025.0%
42
0
36.0028.6%
109
0
40.0042.9%
165
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.64× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.46 21 Aug 22d
1.72 18 Sep 50d
1.38 16 Oct 78d
1.30 18 Dec 141d
0.89 15 Jan 169d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
33
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
155 / 155
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

86/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+58
1W price+0.9%
Call premium76%
Put premium24%
Notional split C 76% / P 24% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.20 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 58/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 12 Aug Matched earnings event is 10 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 2180 contracts traded, $579800 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$579800
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 831 contracts traded, $478675 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$478675
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 571 contracts traded, $149628 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$149628
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 286 contracts traded, $137115 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$137115
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 71 contracts traded, $115495 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$115495

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close28.25
1W+0.9%
RS55.0
Fair value+131.5%
Options pressure58
Speculation45
Volatility96
Trend fit58

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 30.9% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.46 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.31 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.20 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:55 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 37.0%
30 Jul 10:46 Volatility
Pressure 88
Move 32.7%
30 Jul 14:52 Volatility
Pressure 69
Move 31.8%
30 Jul 15:10 Volatility
Pressure 69
Move 31.8%
30 Jul 19:38 Volatility
Pressure 58
Move 30.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 11 · OI 12
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 4
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 6 · OI 46
Strike21.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 40
Strike22.00
Calls · V 44 · OI 23
Puts · V 11 · OI 29
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 14

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts31
Avg IV1.46
Put-call0.04
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts23
Avg IV1.72
Put-call0.09
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts43
Avg IV1.38
Put-call3.16
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV1.30
Put-call3.81
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.89
Put-call0.43

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.31
Put IV1.76
Skew0.45
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.69
Put IV1.83
Skew0.14
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.37
Put IV2.39
Skew1.01
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.22
Put IV1.32
Skew0.10
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV1.14
Put IV1.26
Skew0.12

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractALMS270115P00017000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike17.00
Volume-
OI250
IV1.43
ContractALMS260821P00028000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike28.00
Volume-
OI50
IV1.74
ContractALMS260918C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI30
IV1.54
ContractALMS260918C00032000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike32.00
Volume-
OI25
IV1.47
ContractALMS260918P00029000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike29.00
Volume-
OI18
IV1.84
ContractALMS260918C00031000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike31.00
Volume-
OI13
IV1.52
ContractALMS260821P00027000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike27.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.76
ContractALMS261218P00037000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike37.00
Volume-
OI8
IV1.56