Primary read
Bearish
Speculative participation surge
Ticker Options Intelligence
VXF options intelligence
VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
56
Market data through 5 Aug 2026
Checked 6 Aug 2026 01:07 · complete available chain
Speculative participation surge
Bearish pressure
VXF currently carries bearish options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.39.
Expected move
6.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
1.39
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
2.51
Put-side skew
Trend fit
71
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.0%
RS 0.3
Expected move
6.2%
Put-call volume
2.51
Volume / OI
1.39
Reference IV
0.38
Max pain
235.00
Underlying
236.16
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
51
Research Brief
VXF has a bearish chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 221.46–250.86; The largest call open-interest concentration is 245.00; the largest put concentration is 235.00. The most active strike by current volume is 245.00.
Priced range221.46–250.86
Call concentration245.00
Put concentration235.00
Max pain reference235.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 221.46 to 250.86. Max pain at 235.00 sits inside that range, 0.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
221.46236.16 ± 14.70250.86
Confirmation level
A close beyond 250.86 or below 221.46 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 56/100
Pressure is 39/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure39 × 42%
+16.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation72 × 22%
+15.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement71 × 26%
+18.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility51 × 10%
+5.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 245.00; the largest put concentration is 235.00. The most active strike by current volume is 245.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
200.00-15.3%
1
1
220.00-6.8%
0
1
225.00-4.7%
0
2
230.00-2.6%
1
3
235.00-0.5%
2
0
240.001.6%
1
0
245.003.7%
8
0
255.008.0%
1
0
260.0010.1%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$52,972Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak250.00+$29,427
Negative peak160.00-$3,310
Nearest balance238.27Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
165.00-30.1%
-$110
180.00-23.8%
-$354
190.00-19.5%
-$228
195.00-17.4%
-$788
196.00-17.0%
-$266
200.00-15.3%
-$2,646
210.00-11.1%
-$1,033
220.00-6.8%
+$825
225.00-4.7%
-$102
230.00-2.6%
-$1,136
235.00-0.5%
-$2,762
240.001.6%
+$1,458
245.003.7%
+$12,375
250.005.9%
+$29,427
255.008.0%
+$2,262
260.0010.1%
+$986
265.0012.2%
+$5,911
270.0014.3%
+$8,254
275.0016.4%
+$376
280.0018.6%
+$364
285.0020.7%
+$4,983
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.38
21 Aug
16d
0.24
18 Sep
44d
0.28
18 Dec
135d
0.29
19 Mar
226d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
200
220
225
230
235
240
245
255
260
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 5 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 51 / 51
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $79,699 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-39
1W price+0.0%
Call premium77%
Put premium23%
Notional split
C 77% / P 23%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
1.39
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
71/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $18,510 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$18,510
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
puts cluster with 212 contracts traded, $15,440 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$15,440
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $10,580 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$10,580
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $10,035 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$10,035
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 27 contracts traded, $8,332 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$8,332
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
6 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 6 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close236.16
1W+0.0%
RS0.3
Fair value+27.5%
Options pressure-39
Speculation72
Volatility51
Trend fit71
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:25
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 4.3%
30 Jul 13:12
Bullish
Pressure 83
Move 4.3%
31 Jul 12:52
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 4.2%
3 Aug 11:42
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 3.7%
4 Aug 12:51
Bearish
Pressure -91
Move 3.9%
5 Aug 13:14
Bullish
Pressure 45
Move 5.5%
6 Aug 00:07
Bearish
Pressure -39
Move 6.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike225.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike230.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike235.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike240.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike245.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike255.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.14
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts27
Avg IV0.24
Put-call4.61
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.33
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts2
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.45
Skew0.16
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.33
Skew0.07
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.37
Skew0.12
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.33
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractVXF260918C00205000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike205.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.00
ContractVXF261218P00210000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.39
ContractVXF260918C00245000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike245.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.27
ContractVXF261218P00195000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike195.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.42
ContractVXF260918P00235000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike235.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.26
ContractVXF260918P00130000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike130.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.07
ContractVXF260918P00230000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike230.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.29
ContractVXF260821P00225000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike225.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.45
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.