Ticker Options Intelligence

ERO options intelligence

Ero Copper Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 37 Market data through 29 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 11:43 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

ERO currently carries mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 13.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.88

Balanced tape

Trend fit 47

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +7.7%

RS -2.4

Expected move 13.5%
Put-call volume 0.88
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.77
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 25.98
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 194

Research Brief

ERO has a mixed chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 22.48–29.48; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 22.50.

Priced range22.48–29.48
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 22.48 to 29.48. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 3.8% below spot.

Spot Max pain
22.4825.98 ± 3.5029.48
Confirmation level

A close beyond 29.48 or below 22.48 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 37/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 16/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure16 × 42%
+6.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement47 × 26%
+12.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility94 × 10%
+9.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score37.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 22.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
19
12.50-51.9%
13
14
15.00-42.3%
0
83
17.50-32.6%
8
344
20.00-23.0%
41
1696
22.50-13.4%
272
3411
25.00-3.8%
919
345
30.0015.5%
8402
324
35.0034.7%
13656
28
40.0054.0%
11462
0
45.0073.2%
9514
0
50.0092.5%
97
0
55.00111.7%
201
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.12× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.77 21 Aug 22d
0.71 18 Sep 50d
0.68 16 Oct 78d
0.69 20 Nov 113d
0.66 18 Dec 141d
0.66 15 Jan 169d
0.67 19 Mar 232d
0.68 17 Jun 322d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

23
25
30
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
29 Jul 2026
Calculation
v1.x legacy
Contracts
194 / 194
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

81/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $42375 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+16
1W price+7.7%
Call premium60%
Put premium40%
Notional split C 60% / P 40% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 47/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 110 contracts traded, $12042 estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$12042
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 44 contracts traded, $8160 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$8160
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $7295 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$7295
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 27 contracts traded, $7102 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$7102
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 63 contracts traded, $2422 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$2422

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 1 completed session

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close25.98
1W+7.7%
RS-2.4
Fair value+33.6%
Options pressure16
Speculation40
Volatility94
Trend fit47

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 13.5% history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
IV 0.77 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.88 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:53 Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 14.4%
30 Jul 10:43 Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 13.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 19
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 83
Strike20.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 41
Puts · V 0 · OI 344
Strike22.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 272
Puts · V 69 · OI 1696
Strike25.00
Calls · V 21 · OI 919
Puts · V 41 · OI 3411
Strike30.00
Calls · V 44 · OI 8402
Puts · V 1 · OI 345
Strike35.00
Calls · V 19 · OI 13656
Puts · V 0 · OI 324

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.77
Put-call1.23
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.71
Put-call2.00
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.68
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.09
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.66
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.72
Put IV0.77
Skew0.05
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.69
Skew0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.66
Skew-0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.69
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.66
Skew0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractERO260821P00022500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume69
OI1696
IV0.77
ContractERO260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume44
OI8402
IV0.72
ContractERO260821P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume41
OI3411
IV0.74
ContractERO260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume21
OI919
IV0.66
ContractERO260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume19
OI13656
IV0.84
ContractERO270115C00040000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike40.00
Volume12
OI991
IV0.66
ContractERO260918P00022500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.50
Volume11
OI71
IV0.69
ContractERO261120C00035000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike35.00
Volume10
OI7969
IV0.67