Ticker Options Intelligence

NPKI options intelligence

NPK International Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 49 Market data through 3 Aug 2026 Checked 3 Aug 2026 22:12 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

NPKI currently carries volatility options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.09.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 14.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.09

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.08

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -13.0%

RS -12.5

Expected move 14.2%
Put-call volume 0.08
Volume / OI 0.09
Reference IV 1.21
Max pain 12.50
Underlying 12.49
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 25

Research Brief

NPKI has a volatility chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 10.71–14.27; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range10.71–14.27
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference12.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 10.71 to 14.27. Max pain at 12.50 sits inside that range, 0.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
10.7112.49 ± 1.7814.27
Confirmation level

A close beyond 14.27 or below 10.71 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 49/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 90/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure90 × 42%
+37.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation9 × 22%
+1.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score49.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
10.00-19.9%
3
351
12.500.1%
11
0
17.5040.1%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile+$1,607Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$4,277
Negative peak12.50-$5,930
Nearest balance13.95Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-80.0%
+$0
10.00-19.9%
+$90
12.500.1%
-$5,930
15.0020.1%
+$4,277
17.5040.1%
+$3,160
25.00100.2%
+$11
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.74× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.21 21 Aug 18d
0.58 18 Sep 46d
1.12 18 Dec 137d
0.69 19 Mar 228d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
13
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A95/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
3 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
25 / 25
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

84/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $16,050 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+90
1W price-13.0%
Call premium96%
Put premium4%
Notional split C 96% / P 4% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.09 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 58 contracts traded, $9,307 estimated gross traded notional, and 58% of visible notional.
$9,307
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $3,135 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$3,135
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $808 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$808
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $675 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$675
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $540 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$540

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 4 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close12.49
1W-13.0%
RS-12.5
Fair value+36.1%
Options pressure90
Speculation9
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.2% history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
IV 1.21 history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.08 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.09 history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:10 Bullish
Pressure 77
Move 12.8%
30 Jul 12:23 Volatility
Pressure -41
Move 16.2%
31 Jul 11:05 Bearish
Pressure -86
Move 9.9%
31 Jul 13:37 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 0.0%
31 Jul 13:55 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 49.5%
31 Jul 15:58 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 46.6%
31 Jul 18:33 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 21.4%
2 Aug 13:53 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 15.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike10.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 351
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts4
Avg IV1.21
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.58
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts7
Avg IV1.12
Put-call0.03
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts4
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.71

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.88
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.79
Skew0.21

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNPKI260821P00012500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI351
IV1.20
ContractNPKI260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI13
IV0.76
ContractNPKI260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI5
IV1.77
ContractNPKI260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI2
IV1.30
ContractNPKI261218C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI1
IV3.98
ContractNPKI270319C00012500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.58
ContractNPKI260918P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractNPKI260918C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00