Ticker Options Intelligence

CTO options intelligence

CTO Realty Growth Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 63 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 18:04 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CTO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 63/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 2.18.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 6.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 2.18

Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.03

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.1%

RS 12.3

Expected move 6.0%
Put-call volume 0.03
Volume / OI 2.18
Reference IV 0.80
Max pain 20.00
Underlying 22.00
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 29

Research Brief

CTO has a volatility chain read with 63/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 20.68–23.32; The largest call open-interest concentration is 22.50; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range20.68–23.32
Call concentration22.50
Put concentration20.00
Max pain reference20.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 20.68 to 23.32. Max pain at 20.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
20.6822.00 ± 1.3223.32
Confirmation level

A close beyond 23.32 or below 20.68 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 63/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation58 × 22%
+12.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility80 × 10%
+8.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score62.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 22.50; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-88.6%
0
0
5.00-77.3%
0
0
7.50-65.9%
0
4
15.00-31.8%
0
5
17.50-20.5%
15
65
20.00-9.1%
200
1
22.502.3%
547
0
25.0013.6%
30
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.51× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.80 21 Aug 21d
0.53 18 Sep 49d
0.44 20 Nov 112d
0.53 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

20
23
25
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A95/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
29 / 29
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

88/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.4M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price-0.1%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 2.18 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 1311 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 56% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1059 contracts traded, $1.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 43% of visible notional.
$1.9M
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 51 contracts traded, $8160 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$8160
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 19 contracts traded, $1330 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1330
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 58 contracts traded, $1160 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1160

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Speculative chase

Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close21.97
1W-0.1%
RS12.3
Fair value+35.1%
Options pressure100
Speculation58
Volatility80
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.0% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.80 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 2.18 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:20 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.4%
30 Jul 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.7%
31 Jul 13:05 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.2%
31 Jul 17:04 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 6.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1252 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 32 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 9 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike17.50
Calls · V 13 · OI 15
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike20.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 200
Puts · V 8 · OI 65
Strike22.50
Calls · V 58 · OI 547
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike25.00
Calls · V 26 · OI 30
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.80
Put-call0.01
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts1
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.05
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts4
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.35
Skew0.10
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.76
Skew0.53
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.52
Skew0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCTO270219P00017500
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI10
IV0.52
ContractCTO261120P00012500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI5
IV0.86
ContractCTO270219C00022500
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI4
IV0.48
ContractCTO260821P00015000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI4
IV1.98
ContractCTO270219C00017500
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI2
IV0.46
ContractCTO260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.53
ContractCTO270219P00015000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.66
ContractCTO261120P00035000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.57