Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
AMSF options intelligence
AMERISAFE Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
28
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 18:59 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
AMSF currently carries mixed options pressure with a 28/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
17.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
71
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-4.5%
RS -26.4
Expected move
17.7%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
-
Reference IV
0.45
Max pain
30.00
Underlying
29.04
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
68
Research Brief
AMSF has a mixed chain read with 28/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 23.89–34.19; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.
Priced range23.89–34.19
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference30.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 23.89 to 34.19. Max pain at 30.00 sits inside that range, 3.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
23.8929.04 ± 5.1534.19
Confirmation level
A close beyond 34.19 or below 23.89 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 28/100
Pressure is 5/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure5 × 42%
+2.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation0 × 22%
+0.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement71 × 26%
+18.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility72 × 10%
+7.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
17.50-39.7%
0
0
20.00-31.1%
0
0
22.50-22.5%
0
4
25.00-13.9%
0
19
30.003.3%
1
0
35.0020.5%
1
0
40.0037.7%
0
0
45.0055.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.45
21 Aug
21d
0.37
18 Sep
49d
0.31
16 Oct
77d
0.21
15 Jan
168d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
25
30
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 68 / 68
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Likely noise
Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $0 of estimated gross traded notional, no dominant cluster, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-5
1W price-4.5%
Call premium0%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 0% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
71/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
No high-conviction option cluster is visible in this snapshot.
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close29.04
1W-4.5%
RS-26.4
Fair value-27.9%
Options pressure-5
Speculation0
Volatility72
Trend fit71
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:22
Bearish
Pressure -68
Move 11.1%
30 Jul 11:10
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 11.9%
31 Jul 10:44
Bearish
Pressure -64
Move 16.4%
1 Aug 17:59
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 17.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 19
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.45
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.21
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.29
Skew0.21
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.19
Skew-0.03
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.16
Skew-0.01
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.11
Skew0.10
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAMSF260821P00030000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI19
IV0.81
ContractAMSF261016C00030000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.54
ContractAMSF261016C00035000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.17
ContractAMSF260821P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.29
ContractAMSF261016C00040000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.28
ContractAMSF261016P00035000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.26
ContractAMSF270115C00030000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.01
ContractAMSF270115C00035000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.11
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.