Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
TSLA options intelligence
Tesla Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
33
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 23:35 · partial chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
TSLA currently carries mixed options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.92.
Expected move
2.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.92
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.83
Balanced tape
Trend fit
43
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.6%
RS -29.5
Expected move
2.3%
Put-call volume
0.83
Volume / OI
0.92
Reference IV
0.32
Max pain
307.50
Underlying
311.21
Nearest expiry
3 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
TSLA has a mixed chain read with 33/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 304.03–318.39; The largest call open-interest concentration is 320.00; the largest put concentration is 310.00. The most active strike by current volume is 310.00.
Priced range304.03–318.39
Call concentration320.00
Put concentration310.00
Max pain reference307.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 304.03 to 318.39. Max pain at 307.50 sits inside that range, 1.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
304.03311.21 ± 7.18318.39
Confirmation level
A close beyond 318.39 or below 304.03 at the 3 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 33/100
Pressure is 13/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure13 × 42%
+5.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation61 × 22%
+13.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement43 × 26%
+11.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility32 × 10%
+3.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 320.00; the largest put concentration is 310.00. The most active strike by current volume is 310.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
330
250.00-19.7%
4
1729
290.00-6.8%
573
1738
295.00-5.2%
276
688
297.50-4.4%
176
2653
300.00-3.6%
1668
1844
302.50-2.8%
793
2190
305.00-2.0%
1542
2509
307.50-1.2%
2587
3605
310.00-0.4%
4422
325
312.500.4%
1032
365
315.001.2%
2169
123
317.502.0%
2632
951
320.002.8%
6322
118
322.503.6%
1280
190
325.004.4%
1607
177
327.505.2%
1029
180
330.006.0%
3690
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.32
3 Aug
3d
0.43
5 Aug
5d
0.46
7 Aug
7d
0.42
10 Aug
10d
0.44
12 Aug
12d
0.45
14 Aug
14d
0.45
21 Aug
21d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
250
255
263
268
275
280
288
293
300
305
310
318
323
330
335
343
348
355
360
368
373
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain34%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 5900
- 34% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Likely noise
There is useful activity, but aggregate chain data does not isolate participant intent.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $370.4M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · atm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+13
1W price-0.6%
Call premium61%
Put premium39%
Notional split
C 61% / P 39%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.92
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
43/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 185131 contracts traded, $92.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$92.3M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 35520 contracts traded, $62.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$62.3M
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 121740 contracts traded, $55.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$55.3M
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 5097 contracts traded, $39.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$39.9M
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 13404 contracts traded, $21.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$21.1M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close311.21
1W-0.6%
RS-29.5
Fair value+1.4%
Options pressure13
Speculation61
Volatility32
Trend fit43
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 15:19
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 3.2%
29 Jul 15:40
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 3.3%
29 Jul 16:04
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 3.3%
29 Jul 16:21
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 3.8%
29 Jul 16:49
Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 3.7%
29 Jul 17:11
Mixed
Pressure -6
Move 3.5%
29 Jul 17:31
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 2.9%
29 Jul 17:31
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 2.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1097 · OI 36
Strike205.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1182 · OI 74
Strike210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1000 · OI 47
Strike215.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 11 · OI 263
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 16 · OI 887
Strike225.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike230.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 15
Puts · V 10 · OI 1501
Strike235.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 37
Puts · V 0 · OI 130
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Contracts284
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.67
Expiry5 Aug 2026
Contracts302
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.97
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts340
Avg IV0.46
Put-call1.19
Expiry10 Aug 2026
Contracts240
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.43
Expiry12 Aug 2026
Contracts232
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.36
Skew
Call/put IV balance
3 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.32
Skew-0.01
5 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.43
Skew-0.01
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.01
10 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.01
12 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTSLA260803C00310000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike310.00
Volume34180
OI4422
IV0.31
ContractTSLA260803C00320000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike320.00
Volume28422
OI6322
IV0.34
ContractTSLA260807P00110000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike110.00
Volume27473
OI4572
IV2.33
ContractTSLA260803C00315000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike315.00
Volume27398
OI2169
IV0.32
ContractTSLA260803P00310000
SidePut
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike310.00
Volume26731
OI3605
IV0.32
ContractTSLA260803C00312500
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike312.50
Volume23163
OI1032
IV0.32
ContractTSLA260803C00305000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike305.00
Volume20315
OI1542
IV0.31
ContractTSLA260807P00180000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume18250
OI159
IV1.47
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Options context
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Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.