Ticker Options Intelligence

PD options intelligence

Pagerduty Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 45 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 18:40 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

PD currently carries mixed options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 16.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.08

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.60

Put-side skew

Trend fit 82

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -11.8%

RS -26.6

Expected move 16.2%
Put-call volume 1.60
Volume / OI 0.08
Reference IV 1.28
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 9.08
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 85

Research Brief

PD has a mixed chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.61–10.55; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.

Priced range7.61–10.55
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 7.61 to 10.55. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 10.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
7.619.08 ± 1.4710.55
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.55 or below 7.61 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 45/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 16/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure16 × 42%
+6.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation34 × 22%
+7.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement82 × 26%
+21.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-72.5%
1
345
5.00-44.9%
25
397
7.50-17.4%
579
1427
10.0010.1%
911
218
12.5037.7%
1688
20
15.0065.2%
2803
0
17.5092.7%
1
0
22.50147.8%
2
20
25.00175.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.55× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.28 21 Aug 22d
0.86 18 Sep 50d
0.71 20 Nov 113d
1.17 18 Dec 141d
0.81 15 Jan 169d
0.89 19 Feb 204d
0.50 17 Dec 505d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

8
10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest99%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
85 / 85
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

67/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $259576 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-16
1W price-11.8%
Call premium30%
Put premium70%
Notional split C 30% / P 70% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.08 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 82/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 246 contracts traded, $94435 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$94435
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 128 contracts traded, $69080 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$69080
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 438 contracts traded, $42550 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$42550
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 65 contracts traded, $23912 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$23912
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 308 contracts traded, $15483 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$15483

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.08
1W-11.8%
RS-26.6
Fair value-46.9%
Options pressure-16
Speculation34
Volatility96
Trend fit82

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 16.2% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.28 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.60 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.08 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:18 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 17.1%
30 Jul 11:03 Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 18.7%
30 Jul 16:57 Mixed
Pressure -16
Move 16.2%
30 Jul 17:40 Mixed
Pressure -16
Move 16.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 25
Puts · V 300 · OI 345
Strike7.50
Calls · V 9 · OI 579
Puts · V 8 · OI 397
Strike10.00
Calls · V 55 · OI 911
Puts · V 76 · OI 1427
Strike12.50
Calls · V 19 · OI 1688
Puts · V 1 · OI 218
Strike15.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 2803
Puts · V 11 · OI 20
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV1.28
Put-call4.27
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV0.86
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV0.71
Put-call1.44
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts15
Avg IV1.17
Put-call0.20
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts19
Avg IV0.81
Put-call0.88

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.73
Put IV1.19
Skew0.46
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.86
Put IV1.14
Skew0.28
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.72
Put IV0.78
Skew0.06
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.94
Skew0.26
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.96
Skew0.40

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPD260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.65
ContractPD270219C00010000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI16
IV0.84
ContractPD260918P00007500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI12
IV1.14
ContractPD270219P00010000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.71
ContractPD260821C00022500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI2
IV2.80
ContractPD270115P00020000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.29
ContractPD270219C00020000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.25
ContractPD261218P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.63