Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
AIR options intelligence
AAR Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
52
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:24 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
AIR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
11.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.20
Call-side skew
Trend fit
28
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+8.5%
RS 27.5
Expected move
11.9%
Put-call volume
0.20
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.52
Max pain
120.00
Underlying
129.05
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
290
Research Brief
AIR has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 113.65–144.45; The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 140.00.
Priced range113.65–144.45
Call concentration135.00
Put concentration100.00
Max pain reference120.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 113.65 to 144.45. Max pain at 120.00 sits inside that range, 7.0% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
113.65129.05 ± 15.40144.45
Confirmation level
A close beyond 144.45 or below 113.65 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 52/100
Pressure is 71/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure71 × 42%
+30.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation32 × 22%
+7.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement28 × 26%
+7.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility76 × 10%
+7.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 140.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
15
80.00-38.0%
15
21
90.00-30.3%
22
100
100.00-22.5%
18
7
105.00-18.6%
29
55
110.00-14.8%
27
91
115.00-10.9%
10
63
120.00-7.0%
36
83
125.00-3.1%
71
48
130.000.7%
36
13
135.004.6%
166
11
140.008.5%
54
1
145.0012.4%
21
1
150.0016.2%
26
0
155.0020.1%
82
0
160.0024.0%
36
0
165.0027.9%
149
0
180.0039.5%
65
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.52
21 Aug
22d
0.51
18 Sep
50d
0.53
20 Nov
113d
0.51
18 Dec
141d
0.50
19 Feb
204d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 290 / 290
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $14925 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+71
1W price+8.5%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split
C 89% / P 11%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
28/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $5780 estimated gross traded notional, and 39% of visible notional.
$5780
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $5230 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$5230
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $2250 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$2250
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1465 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$1465
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $200 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$200
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close140.04
1W+8.5%
RS27.5
Fair value+82.1%
Options pressure71
Speculation32
Volatility76
Trend fit28
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:42
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 13.6%
30 Jul 10:38
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 10.7%
31 Jul 10:24
Volatility
Pressure 71
Move 11.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.40
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts56
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.20
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.58
Skew0.15
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.51
Skew0.06
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.54
Skew0.08
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.52
Skew0.06
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.50
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAIR260918C00165000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike165.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.45
ContractAIR260821C00140000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike140.00
Volume6
OI54
IV0.49
ContractAIR260821C00145000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike145.00
Volume4
OI21
IV0.49
ContractAIR270219C00170000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike170.00
Volume4
OI1
IV0.46
ContractAIR260821P00090000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume2
OI21
IV0.62
ContractAIR260821P00085000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume2
OI8
IV0.70
ContractAIR270219C00165000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike165.00
Volume1
OI3
IV0.46
ContractAIR270219P00130000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike130.00
Volume1
OI-
IV0.51
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.