Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
STGW options intelligence
Stagwell Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
57
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 21:31 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
STGW currently carries volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 18.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
18.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.17
Call-side skew
Trend fit
22
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+13.9%
RS 31.4
Expected move
18.0%
Put-call volume
0.17
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.76
Max pain
7.00
Underlying
8.45
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
102
Research Brief
STGW has a volatility chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 6.92–9.98; The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00.
Priced range6.92–9.98
Call concentration8.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference7.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 6.92 to 9.98. Max pain at 7.00 sits inside that range, 17.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
6.928.45 ± 1.539.98
Confirmation level
A close beyond 9.98 or below 6.92 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 57/100
Pressure is 82/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure82 × 42%
+34.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation32 × 22%
+7.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement22 × 26%
+5.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility93 × 10%
+9.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-88.2%
6
0
2.00-76.3%
3
0
3.00-64.5%
2
0
4.00-52.7%
2
11
5.00-40.8%
0
2
6.00-29.0%
0
415
7.00-17.2%
212
31
8.00-5.3%
331
0
9.006.5%
0
0
10.0018.3%
200
0
11.0030.2%
0
0
12.0042.0%
0
0
13.0053.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.76
21 Aug
21d
0.89
18 Sep
49d
0.88
18 Dec
140d
0.89
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
7
8
9
10
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 102 / 102
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $39480 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+82
1W price+13.9%
Call premium92%
Put premium8%
Notional split
C 92% / P 8%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
22/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 301 contracts traded, $15050 estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$15050
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $11180 estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$11180
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 16 contracts traded, $9510 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$9510
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 45 contracts traded, $2475 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$2475
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $725 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$725
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close8.45
1W+13.9%
RS31.4
Fair value+41.1%
Options pressure82
Speculation32
Volatility93
Trend fit22
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:04
Volatility
Pressure -65
Move 22.4%
30 Jul 10:52
Volatility
Pressure 38
Move 28.0%
31 Jul 10:34
Volatility
Pressure 49
Move 25.6%
31 Jul 13:55
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 24.6%
31 Jul 15:52
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 22.6%
31 Jul 16:59
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 22.6%
31 Jul 17:16
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 22.6%
31 Jul 18:13
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 22.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 212
Puts · V 0 · OI 415
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 331
Puts · V 45 · OI 31
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.76
Put-call0.14
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.89
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.88
Put-call2.20
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts30
Avg IV0.89
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.88
Put IV0.97
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.84
Put IV0.94
Skew0.10
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.06
Put IV0.84
Skew-0.21
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.95
Skew0.14
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSTGW260821C00009000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume301
OI-
IV0.88
ContractSTGW260821P00008000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike8.00
Volume45
OI31
IV0.97
ContractSTGW261218P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume10
OI1626
IV1.02
ContractSTGW260918C00001000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1.00
Volume10
OI12
IV3.27
ContractSTGW260821C00003000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume8
OI2
IV0.01
ContractSTGW260821C00001000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1.00
Volume6
OI6
IV0.01
ContractSTGW261218C00012000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.00
Volume5
OI16
IV1.17
ContractSTGW260918C00002000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.00
Volume2
OI11
IV3.05
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.