Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MSGS options intelligence
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
37
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 11:58 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MSGS currently carries bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
6.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.71
Call-side skew
Trend fit
84
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.1%
RS 29.8
Expected move
6.6%
Put-call volume
0.71
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
0.34
Max pain
380.00
Underlying
396.40
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
282
Research Brief
MSGS has a bullish chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 370.10–422.70; The largest call open-interest concentration is 400.00; the largest put concentration is 370.00. The most active strike by current volume is 400.00.
Priced range370.10–422.70
Call concentration400.00
Put concentration370.00
Max pain reference380.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 370.10 to 422.70. Max pain at 380.00 sits inside that range, 4.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
370.10396.40 ± 26.30422.70
Confirmation level
A close beyond 422.70 or below 370.10 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 37/100
Pressure is 20/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure20 × 42%
+8.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement84 × 26%
+21.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility50 × 10%
+5.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 400.00; the largest put concentration is 370.00. The most active strike by current volume is 400.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
18
220.00-44.5%
31
68
280.00-29.4%
6
84
300.00-24.3%
23
38
320.00-19.3%
151
29
330.00-16.8%
26
77
340.00-14.2%
17
89
350.00-11.7%
50
121
360.00-9.2%
46
555
370.00-6.7%
99
235
380.00-4.1%
106
94
390.00-1.6%
248
98
400.000.9%
2890
49
410.003.4%
541
10
420.006.0%
557
109
440.0011.0%
62
80
450.0013.5%
80
0
500.0026.1%
151
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.34
21 Aug
21d
0.32
18 Sep
49d
0.33
20 Nov
112d
0.34
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 282 / 282
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $94410 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+20
1W price-0.1%
Call premium72%
Put premium28%
Notional split
C 72% / P 28%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
84/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
11 Aug
Matched earnings event is 10 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $39420 estimated gross traded notional, and 42% of visible notional.
$39420
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $16350 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$16350
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 15 contracts traded, $13218 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$13218
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $8585 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$8585
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $4670 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$4670
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close396.40
1W-0.1%
RS29.8
Fair value+76.1%
Options pressure20
Speculation8
Volatility50
Trend fit84
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:29
Bullish
Pressure 60
Move 6.7%
30 Jul 11:25
Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 6.8%
30 Jul 14:50
Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 6.8%
30 Jul 15:07
Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 6.8%
30 Jul 19:34
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 6.7%
31 Jul 18:18
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 6.6%
31 Jul 21:01
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 6.6%
1 Aug 10:58
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 6.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.67
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.10
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.33
Put-call2.17
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts66
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.40
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.33
Skew0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.33
Skew0.01
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.34
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMSGS260821C00400000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike400.00
Volume15
OI2890
IV0.36
ContractMSGS260821P00370000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike370.00
Volume11
OI555
IV0.34
ContractMSGS261120P00350000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike350.00
Volume11
OI108
IV0.33
ContractMSGS260918C00450000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike450.00
Volume10
OI10
IV0.30
ContractMSGS260821C00420000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike420.00
Volume3
OI557
IV0.35
ContractMSGS261120C00360000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike360.00
Volume3
OI5
IV0.35
ContractMSGS270219P00340000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike340.00
Volume2
OI3
IV0.34
ContractMSGS270219C00380000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike380.00
Volume2
OI-
IV0.35
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.