Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
BLOX options intelligence
NICHOLAS CRYPTO INCOME ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
65
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 12:05 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
BLOX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 65/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.38.
Expected move
11.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
1.38
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.03
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-3.4%
RS -22.1
Expected move
11.4%
Put-call volume
0.03
Volume / OI
1.38
Reference IV
0.52
Max pain
13.00
Underlying
13.37
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
108
Research Brief
BLOX has a volatility chain read with 65/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 11.85–14.89; The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 13.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.
Priced range11.85–14.89
Call concentration16.00
Put concentration13.00
Max pain reference13.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 11.85 to 14.89. Max pain at 13.00 sits inside that range, 2.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
11.8513.37 ± 1.5214.89
Confirmation level
A close beyond 14.89 or below 11.85 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 65/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation72 × 22%
+15.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 13.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
10.00-25.2%
0
9
11.00-17.7%
0
22
12.00-10.2%
0
33
13.00-2.8%
4
2
14.004.7%
37
0
15.0012.2%
13
0
16.0019.7%
39
0
17.0027.2%
29
0
18.0034.6%
1
0
19.0042.1%
5
0
20.0049.6%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1,879Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak14.00+$1,861
Negative peak13.00-$797
Nearest balance13.30Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
4.00-70.1%
+$1
10.00-25.2%
+$7
11.00-17.7%
-$132
12.00-10.2%
-$507
13.00-2.8%
-$797
14.004.7%
+$1,861
15.0012.2%
+$252
16.0019.7%
+$740
17.0027.2%
+$429
18.0034.6%
+$4
19.0042.1%
+$15
20.0049.6%
+$5
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.52
21 Aug
21d
0.42
18 Sep
49d
0.25
20 Nov
112d
0.36
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
11
12
13
14
15
16
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 108 / 108
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $15,364 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-3.4%
Call premium93%
Put premium7%
Notional split
C 93% / P 7%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
1.38
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $11,065 estimated gross traded notional, and 72% of visible notional.
$11,065
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 314 contracts traded, $2,080 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$2,080
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $1,212 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1,212
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 7 contracts traded, $648 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$648
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $290 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$290
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close13.37
1W-3.4%
RS-22.1
Fair value-14.9%
Options pressure100
Speculation72
Volatility77
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:01
Bullish
Pressure 70
Move 10.0%
30 Jul 11:35
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 15.2%
31 Jul 11:13
Bullish
Pressure 72
Move 10.0%
3 Aug 11:05
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 7 · OI 33
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 37
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike15.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 39
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 29
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.02
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.13
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.09
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.36
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.76
Skew0.18
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.81
Skew0.27
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.04
Skew-
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.83
Skew0.37
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBLOX260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume300
OI2
IV0.73
ContractBLOX260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume13
OI13
IV0.25
ContractBLOX261120C00019000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike19.00
Volume11
OI-
IV0.27
ContractBLOX260918C00006000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike6.00
Volume8
OI-
IV0.01
ContractBLOX270219C00017000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike17.00
Volume7
OI42
IV0.14
ContractBLOX260821P00013000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike13.00
Volume7
OI33
IV0.89
ContractBLOX260918C00007000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.00
Volume4
OI-
IV0.98
ContractBLOX260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume2
OI-
IV1.66
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.