Ticker Options Intelligence

OBK options intelligence

Origin Bancorp, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 48 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 14:43 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

OBK currently carries bullish options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 0.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 0.1%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.08

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +2.1%

RS 21.7

Expected move 0.1%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.08
Reference IV 0.00
Max pain 50.00
Underlying 53.62
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 11

Research Brief

OBK has a bullish chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 53.57–53.67; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00.

Priced range53.57–53.67
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference50.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 53.57 to 53.67. Max pain at 50.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
53.5753.62 ± 0.0553.67
Confirmation level

A close beyond 53.67 or below 53.57 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 48/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation26 × 22%
+5.7

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility1 × 10%
+0.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
50.00-6.8%
1
0
55.002.6%
56
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.02× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.00 21 Aug 21d
0.04 18 Sep 49d
0.04 16 Oct 77d
0.25 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

50
55
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A90/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
11 / 11
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

56/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3210 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+2.1%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.08 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2840 estimated gross traded notional, and 88% of visible notional.
$2840
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $210 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$210
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $160 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$160

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close54.73
1W+2.1%
RS21.7
Fair value+56.3%
Options pressure100
Speculation26
Volatility1
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 0.1% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.08 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:07 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 5.9%
30 Jul 10:54 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.2%
31 Jul 02:42 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.9%
31 Jul 13:43 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 0.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 56
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts2
Avg IV0.00
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.04
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV0.04
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts1
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.01
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.00
Put IV0.06
Skew0.06
16 Oct 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.00
Put IV-
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV0.25
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractOBK260918C00055000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.00
ContractOBK260918P00050000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.06
ContractOBK261016C00050000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.14
ContractOBK260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractOBK261016C00060000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.06
ContractOBK270115P00030000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.25
ContractOBK261016C00040000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike40.00
Volume3
OI1
IV0.00
ContractOBK260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume1
OI56
IV0.01