Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
W options intelligence
Wayfair Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
48
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 08:28 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
W currently carries volatility options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
13.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.44
Put-side skew
Trend fit
80
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-5.7%
RS -9.6
Expected move
13.7%
Put-call volume
1.44
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
1.22
Max pain
93.00
Underlying
84.18
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1400
Research Brief
W has a volatility chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 72.63–95.73; The largest call open-interest concentration is 120.00; the largest put concentration is 75.00. The most active strike by current volume is 88.00.
Priced range72.63–95.73
Call concentration120.00
Put concentration75.00
Max pain reference93.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 72.63 to 95.73. Max pain at 93.00 sits inside that range, 10.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
72.6384.18 ± 11.5595.73
Confirmation level
A close beyond 95.73 or below 72.63 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 48/100
Pressure is 20/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure20 × 42%
+8.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement80 × 26%
+20.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 120.00; the largest put concentration is 75.00. The most active strike by current volume is 88.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
212
70.00-16.8%
0
497
75.00-10.9%
5
154
80.00-5.0%
2
201
81.00-3.8%
11
102
83.00-1.4%
34
48
85.001.0%
52
103
86.002.2%
6
48
87.003.3%
2
28
88.004.5%
40
30
90.006.9%
68
122
97.0015.2%
53
10
100.0018.8%
83
129
101.0020.0%
1
1
103.0022.4%
4
0
105.0024.7%
127
0
110.0030.7%
162
0
120.0042.6%
961
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.22
7 Aug
7d
0.97
14 Aug
14d
0.89
21 Aug
21d
0.83
28 Aug
28d
0.79
4 Sep
35d
0.76
11 Sep
42d
0.75
18 Sep
49d
0.73
20 Nov
112d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
68
70
71
73
75
76
78
80
81
83
84
86
88
89
91
93
94
96
98
99
101
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1400 / 1400
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-20
1W price-5.7%
Call premium28%
Put premium72%
Notional split
C 28% / P 72%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
80/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
3 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3046 contracts traded, $3.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 65% of visible notional.
$3.1M
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1804 contracts traded, $529192 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$529192
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 98 contracts traded, $412810 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$412810
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 488 contracts traded, $117188 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$117188
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 183 contracts traded, $111452 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$111452
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close84.18
1W-5.7%
RS-9.6
Fair value+34.1%
Options pressure-20
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit80
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:28
Volatility
Pressure -35
Move 12.8%
30 Jul 06:05
Volatility
Pressure -67
Move 7.6%
31 Jul 07:22
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 7.6%
31 Jul 14:01
Volatility
Pressure -42
Move 5.3%
1 Aug 07:28
Volatility
Pressure -20
Move 13.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 21
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 11 · OI 8
Strike63.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike64.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 2 · OI 101
Strike66.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 0
Strike67.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts128
Avg IV1.22
Put-call0.18
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV0.97
Put-call1.24
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts130
Avg IV0.89
Put-call0.42
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.83
Put-call16.75
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.79
Put-call0.17
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.20
Put IV1.13
Skew-0.07
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.03
Put IV0.91
Skew-0.12
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.90
Put IV0.77
Skew-0.14
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.89
Put IV0.80
Skew-0.10
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.72
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractW260918P00087500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike87.50
Volume3043
OI157
IV0.74
ContractW260807C00088000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike88.00
Volume770
OI40
IV1.29
ContractW260807C00103000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike103.00
Volume753
OI4
IV1.30
ContractW260821C00105000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume370
OI1962
IV0.87
ContractW260814P00080000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume107
OI5
IV0.92
ContractW260828P00065000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume100
OI-
IV0.85
ContractW260807C00086000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike86.00
Volume83
OI6
IV1.33
ContractW261120P00032500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike32.50
Volume78
OI8
IV0.95
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.