Ticker Options Intelligence

CSTL options intelligence

Castle Biosciences Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 68 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 05:15 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CSTL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 68/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.67.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 14.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 1.67

Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +13.4%

RS -7.7

Expected move 14.8%
Put-call volume 0.00
Volume / OI 1.67
Reference IV 0.62
Max pain 22.50
Underlying 24.69
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 82

Research Brief

CSTL has a volatility chain read with 68/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 21.04–28.33; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.

Priced range21.04–28.33
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration22.50
Max pain reference22.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 21.04 to 28.33. Max pain at 22.50 sits inside that range, 8.9% below spot.

Spot Max pain
21.0424.69 ± 3.6528.33
Confirmation level

A close beyond 28.33 or below 21.04 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 68/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation79 × 22%
+17.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility83 × 10%
+8.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score67.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
12.50-49.4%
0
0
15.00-39.2%
0
0
17.50-29.1%
0
1
20.00-19.0%
0
4
22.50-8.9%
3
1
25.001.3%
3
1
30.0021.5%
8
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.07× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.62 21 Aug 21d
0.56 18 Sep 49d
0.51 16 Oct 77d
0.57 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

20
23
25
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
82 / 82
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

84/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $17672 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+13.4%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 1.67 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 221 contracts traded, $12722 estimated gross traded notional, and 72% of visible notional.
$12722
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $3145 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$3145
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1630 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$1630
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $172 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$172
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $2 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$2

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Speculative chase

Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close28.00
1W+13.4%
RS-7.7
Fair value+16.4%
Options pressure100
Speculation79
Volatility83
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.62 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 1.67 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:21 Volatility
Pressure -97
Move 18.4%
30 Jul 11:09 Volatility
Pressure -97
Move 18.2%
30 Jul 15:22 Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 21.6%
30 Jul 15:44 Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 21.4%
31 Jul 09:54 Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 19.2%
1 Aug 04:15 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 14.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike30.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.62
Put-call1.00
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.57
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.93
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.53
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.27
Skew-0.43
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.22
Skew-0.51
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.61
Skew-0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCSTL261016C00040000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike40.00
Volume200
OI1
IV0.56
ContractCSTL261016C00030000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike30.00
Volume21
OI3
IV0.67
ContractCSTL261016C00025000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike25.00
Volume6
OI12
IV0.54
ContractCSTL260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume2
OI2
IV0.50
ContractCSTL260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume1
OI8
IV0.93
ContractCSTL260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume1
OI-
IV0.68
ContractCSTL260821P00015000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume1
OI-
IV1.04
ContractCSTL261016P00020000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI24
IV0.32