Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
UMBF options intelligence
UMB Financial Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 01:20 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
UMBF currently carries bullish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.12.
Expected move
4.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.12
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.36
Call-side skew
Trend fit
37
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.2%
RS 9.7
Expected move
4.7%
Put-call volume
0.36
Volume / OI
0.12
Reference IV
0.52
Max pain
120.00
Underlying
145.73
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
40
Research Brief
UMBF has a bullish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 138.93–152.53; The largest call open-interest concentration is 160.00; the largest put concentration is 120.00. The most active strike by current volume is 145.00.
Priced range138.93–152.53
Call concentration160.00
Put concentration120.00
Max pain reference120.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 138.93 to 152.53. Max pain at 120.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
138.93145.73 ± 6.80152.53
Confirmation level
A close beyond 152.53 or below 138.93 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 58/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure58 × 42%
+24.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation27 × 22%
+5.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement37 × 26%
+9.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility55 × 10%
+5.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 160.00; the largest put concentration is 120.00. The most active strike by current volume is 145.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
120.00-17.7%
0
0
145.00-0.5%
0
0
150.002.9%
1
0
160.009.8%
101
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$206,170Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak155.00+$46,550
Negative peak105.00-$537
Nearest balance120.16Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
65.00-55.4%
-$23
70.00-52.0%
-$191
80.00-45.1%
-$517
85.00-41.7%
-$185
90.00-38.2%
-$217
100.00-31.4%
+$458
105.00-27.9%
-$537
110.00-24.5%
-$534
115.00-21.1%
+$392
120.00-17.7%
-$489
130.00-10.8%
+$29,725
135.00-7.4%
+$26,646
140.00-3.9%
+$6,779
145.00-0.5%
+$36,642
150.002.9%
+$21,776
155.006.4%
+$46,550
160.009.8%
+$39,894
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.52
21 Aug
18d
0.32
18 Sep
46d
0.33
18 Dec
137d
0.35
19 Mar
228d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
120
145
150
160
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 40 / 40
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $75,692 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+58
1W price+3.2%
Call premium94%
Put premium6%
Notional split
C 94% / P 6%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.12
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
37/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 30 contracts traded, $42,460 estimated gross traded notional, and 56% of visible notional.
$42,460
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $13,010 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$13,010
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $7,205 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$7,205
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $5,170 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$5,170
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
puts cluster with 18 contracts traded, $3,576 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$3,576
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close145.73
1W+3.2%
RS9.7
Fair value+45.0%
Options pressure58
Speculation27
Volatility55
Trend fit37
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:28
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.5%
30 Jul 10:23
Bullish
Pressure 96
Move 5.0%
31 Jul 10:12
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.5%
2 Aug 12:38
Bearish
Pressure -89
Move 4.1%
4 Aug 00:20
Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 4.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike145.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 0
Strike150.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike160.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 101
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.80
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.55
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.33
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts5
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.32
Skew-0.07
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.71
Skew0.41
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.44
Skew0.13
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUMBF260918C00155000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI100
IV0.39
ContractUMBF260918P00070000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI7
IV1.44
ContractUMBF260918P00090000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI4
IV1.13
ContractUMBF261218P00085000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.71
ContractUMBF261218C00135000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike135.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.00
ContractUMBF260918P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.93
ContractUMBF261218P00065000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.89
ContractUMBF270319C00160000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.30
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.