Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
RSG options intelligence
Republic Services Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 19:57 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
RSG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
4.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.16
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.9%
RS -11.0
Expected move
4.8%
Put-call volume
0.16
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.25
Max pain
220.00
Underlying
210.55
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
224
Research Brief
RSG has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 200.45–220.65; The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 200.00. The most active strike by current volume is 210.00.
Priced range200.45–220.65
Call concentration250.00
Put concentration200.00
Max pain reference220.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 200.45 to 220.65. Max pain at 220.00 sits inside that range, 4.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
200.45210.55 ± 10.10220.65
Confirmation level
A close beyond 220.65 or below 200.45 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 71/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure71 × 42%
+30.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation18 × 22%
+3.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility37 × 10%
+3.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 200.00. The most active strike by current volume is 210.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
115.00-45.4%
0
0
120.00-43.0%
0
0
125.00-40.6%
0
0
130.00-38.3%
0
0
135.00-35.9%
0
0
140.00-33.5%
0
1
175.00-16.9%
0
20
180.00-14.5%
0
22
185.00-12.1%
0
51
190.00-9.8%
0
30
195.00-7.4%
9
931
200.00-5.0%
11
86
210.00-0.3%
56
757
220.004.5%
108
0
230.009.2%
821
0
240.0014.0%
381
0
250.0018.7%
883
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.25
21 Aug
21d
0.23
18 Sep
49d
0.22
16 Oct
77d
0.22
15 Jan
168d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
250
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 224 / 224
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $131058 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+71
1W price-2.9%
Call premium81%
Put premium19%
Notional split
C 81% / P 19%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 312 contracts traded, $93328 estimated gross traded notional, and 71% of visible notional.
$93328
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 21 contracts traded, $14470 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$14470
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 29 contracts traded, $7865 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$7865
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $7690 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$7690
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $2800 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$2800
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close210.55
1W-2.9%
RS-11.0
Fair value+4.3%
Options pressure71
Speculation18
Volatility37
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:06
Bearish
Pressure -58
Move 5.3%
30 Jul 10:04
Bearish
Pressure -92
Move 4.9%
31 Jul 10:02
Bearish
Pressure -52
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 16:58
Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 22:47
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 5.9%
1 Aug 18:57
Bullish
Pressure 71
Move 4.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.38
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.23
Put-call1.14
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.14
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts50
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.10
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.28
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.23
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.20
Skew-0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.22
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractRSG261016C00230000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike230.00
Volume299
OI144
IV0.23
ContractRSG261016P00200000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike200.00
Volume23
OI225
IV0.20
ContractRSG261016P00210000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike210.00
Volume16
OI363
IV0.21
ContractRSG260918C00220000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike220.00
Volume7
OI107
IV0.23
ContractRSG260821C00210000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume5
OI56
IV0.25
ContractRSG270115C00220000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike220.00
Volume5
OI31
IV0.22
ContractRSG260918P00210000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike210.00
Volume5
OI10
IV0.22
ContractRSG261016C00240000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike240.00
Volume4
OI257
IV0.23
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.