Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AIPO options intelligence
DEFIANCE AI & POWER INFRASTRUCTURE ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
60
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 09:56 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
AIPO currently carries bearish options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.22.
Expected move
7.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.22
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
20.43
Put-side skew
Trend fit
6
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.4%
RS 2.2
Expected move
7.4%
Put-call volume
20.43
Volume / OI
0.22
Reference IV
0.42
Max pain
30.00
Underlying
28.63
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
172
Research Brief
AIPO has a bearish chain read with 60/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 26.50–30.76; The largest call open-interest concentration is 33.00; the largest put concentration is 28.00. The most active strike by current volume is 28.00.
Priced range26.50–30.76
Call concentration33.00
Put concentration28.00
Max pain reference30.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 26.50 to 30.76. Max pain at 30.00 sits inside that range, 4.8% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
26.5028.63 ± 2.1330.76
Confirmation level
A close beyond 30.76 or below 26.50 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 60/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation45 × 22%
+9.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement6 × 26%
+1.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility59 × 10%
+5.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 33.00; the largest put concentration is 28.00. The most active strike by current volume is 28.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
20.00-30.1%
15
3
23.00-19.7%
0
2
24.00-16.2%
0
4395
25.00-12.7%
0
34
26.00-9.2%
26
80
27.00-5.7%
0
4446
28.00-2.2%
5
94
29.001.3%
38
99
30.004.8%
71
18
31.008.3%
33
9
32.0011.8%
44
5
33.0015.3%
168
0
34.0018.8%
104
1
35.0022.2%
14
0
36.0025.7%
3
0
37.0029.2%
30
0
38.0032.7%
47
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$417,281Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak34.00+$9,073
Negative peak28.00-$333,048
Nearest balance30.41Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
20.00-30.1%
+$445
21.00-26.7%
+$0
23.00-19.7%
-$15
24.00-16.2%
-$186
25.00-12.7%
-$114,128
26.00-9.2%
-$535
27.00-5.7%
-$4,961
28.00-2.2%
-$333,048
29.001.3%
-$2,447
30.004.8%
-$3,687
31.008.3%
+$5,353
32.0011.8%
+$8,559
33.0015.3%
+$5,858
34.0018.8%
+$9,073
35.0022.2%
+$4,077
36.0025.7%
+$5,755
37.0029.2%
+$1,202
38.0032.7%
+$1,298
40.0039.7%
+$39
45.0057.2%
+$64
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.42
21 Aug
17d
0.45
18 Sep
45d
0.47
16 Oct
73d
0.47
15 Jan
164d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 172 / 172
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $108,070 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · atm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-100
1W price-2.4%
Call premium36%
Put premium64%
Notional split
C 36% / P 64%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.22
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
6/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 1156 contracts traded, $46,352 estimated gross traded notional, and 43% of visible notional.
$46,352
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 32 contracts traded, $21,205 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$21,205
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1197 contracts traded, $15,652 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$15,652
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $7,680 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$7,680
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $4,895 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$4,895
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close28.63
1W-2.4%
RS2.2
Fair value+11.6%
Options pressure-100
Speculation45
Volatility59
Trend fit6
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:57
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 9.4%
30 Jul 11:32
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 11.9%
31 Jul 11:04
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 9.6%
2 Aug 07:14
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 8.1%
4 Aug 11:13
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 8.6%
5 Aug 08:56
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 7.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 15
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike24.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1146 · OI 4395
Strike26.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 26
Puts · V 5 · OI 34
Strike27.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 45 · OI 80
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.42
Put-call87.30
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.45
Put-call2.80
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.16
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts42
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.24
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.49
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.45
Skew0.04
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.10
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.49
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAIPO260821P00028000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike28.00
Volume1151
OI4446
IV0.49
ContractAIPO260821P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume1146
OI4395
IV0.62
ContractAIPO260821P00027000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike27.00
Volume45
OI80
IV0.54
ContractAIPO270115C00027000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike27.00
Volume27
OI5
IV0.49
ContractAIPO261016C00035000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume15
OI1
IV0.45
ContractAIPO270115C00030000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume11
OI28
IV0.46
ContractAIPO260821C00034000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike34.00
Volume9
OI104
IV0.47
ContractAIPO270115C00028000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike28.00
Volume9
OI70
IV0.38
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.