Pattern Intelligence · JPX

4728 quant read

The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.

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Next week 49.7%

Unclear · avg analogue +0.28%

Low conviction

Next 4 weeks 43.6%

Unclear · avg analogue -0.68%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence is mixed

The current setup has both supportive and challenging components.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 645.00
Trend Line: 639.03
Fair value: 633.97

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: wait for confirmation A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Supportive

Market Activity: +0.15

Headwinds

Relative Strength: -0.24

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -4.77%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -1.48%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +2.33%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +0.93%

Price is close to trend, so direction still needs confirmation.

Price vs Fair Value +1.74%

Price is close to Fair Value.

Market Dynamics +0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.24

The stock is lagging relative strength.

Market Activity +0.15

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle +0.02

This component is neutral.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
H78 SES	2022-12-16	0.481	higher	+8.91%
7082 JPX	2023-02-10	0.4793	lower	-4.87%
603866 SHH	2026-02-06	0.4682	lower	-2.55%
UV SET	2024-09-13	0.4653	lower	-0.56%
8664 KLS	2025-05-09	0.4643	lower	-0.86%
MLPT JKT	2023-10-20	0.4622	lower	-4.82%
OLE MCE	2024-11-08	0.4622	lower	-9.65%
BLUE JKT	2024-07-26	0.4596	higher	+2.40%
MCO MEX	2023-05-26	0.4589	higher	+1.52%
PHO ASX	2024-05-10	0.4564	lower	-35.48%
4335 SAU	2026-01-30	0.4519	lower	-2.80%
601618 SHH	2024-08-02	0.4514	lower	-6.94%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure 1.31819
Volume pressure 1.05668
Trend Signal -0.42302
Next-week expectancy -0.35549

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.