Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Politics & Policy expectations are rising at 77.5% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 77.5%. 24h move +0.5 pts. 7d move +0.5 pts. Data quality 46/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 77.5%
Signal High Conviction
Score 25
Freshness 3m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 9.0K Liquidity 6.9K Spread 0.1 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality45.5
Momentum2.9
Urgency25.0
7d Move0.5 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 77.5%. 24h move +0.5 pts. 7d move +0.5 pts. Data quality 46/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

Same theme
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? 87.5% · Probability Surge · score 56 Will the Republican Party win the NV-03 House seat? 19.0% · Probability Fade · score 55 Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? 53.4% · Probability Fade · score 54 Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? 27.5% · Probability Fade · score 54 Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? 42.5% · Probability Fade · score 53 Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? 62.0% · Probability Fade · score 50