Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by 10–20%?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 4.5% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 4.5%. 24h move -2.0 pts. 7d move -2.0 pts. Data quality 39/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 4.5%
Signal Watch
Score 22
Freshness 3m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 972 Liquidity 3.4K Spread 0.1 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality38.8
Momentum11.6
Urgency5.0
7d Move-2.0 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 4.5%. 24h move -2.0 pts. 7d move -2.0 pts. Data quality 39/100.

Same theme
Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? 37.5% · Probability Surge · score 67 Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? 32.5% · Probability Surge · score 58 Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? 98.1% · Probability Surge · score 56 Exact Score: AC Goianiense 3 - 3 CR Brasil? 1.9% · Probability Fade · score 56 Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026? 5.4% · Probability Fade · score 56 Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? 13.0% · Probability Fade · score 55