Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Tanvir Ahmad win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 5.8% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 5.8%. 24h move -0.4 pts. 7d move -0.4 pts. Data quality 33/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 5.9%
Signal Watch
Score 25
Freshness 3m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 94 Liquidity 2.6K Spread 0.1 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality32.6
Momentum2.6
Urgency53.7
7d Move-0.5 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 5.8%. 24h move -0.4 pts. 7d move -0.4 pts. Data quality 33/100.

Same theme
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? 99.8% · Probability Surge · score 72 Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026? 66.0% · Probability Surge · score 65 Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? 29.0% · Probability Surge · score 59 Will Starmer say "Kid" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? 48.0% · Probability Surge · score 57 Exact Score: AC Goianiense 3 - 3 CR Brasil? 1.9% · Probability Fade · score 57 Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? 34.5% · Probability Surge · score 57