Polymarket · Energy

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Energy expectations are rising at 42.5% on a moderate-quality market. Energy expectation is rising at 42.5%. 24h move +20.5 pts. 7d move +20.5 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 42.5%
Signal Probability Surge
Score 60
Freshness 2m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 10.0K Liquidity 3.0K Spread 0.1 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality43.9
Momentum84.0
Urgency46.7
7d Move20.5 pts

Energy expectation is rising at 42.5%. 24h move +20.5 pts. 7d move +20.5 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Same theme
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? 5.5% · Probability Fade · score 66 Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? 8.1% · Probability Fade · score 65 Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? 54.5% · Probability Fade · score 61 Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? 6.0% · Probability Fade · score 60 Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? 18.0% · Probability Fade · score 59 Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? 42.5% · Probability Surge · score 58