Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 46.5% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 46.5%. 24h move -1.0 pts. 7d move -1.0 pts. Data quality 42/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 46.5%
Signal Watch
Score 31
Freshness 2m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 9.6K Liquidity 1.4K Spread 0.1 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality42.0
Momentum20.8
Urgency25.0
7d Move-1.0 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 46.5%. 24h move -1.0 pts. 7d move -1.0 pts. Data quality 42/100.

Same theme
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? 87.5% · Probability Surge · score 56 Will the Republican Party win the NV-03 House seat? 19.0% · Probability Fade · score 55 Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? 53.4% · Probability Fade · score 54 Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? 27.5% · Probability Fade · score 54 Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? 42.5% · Probability Fade · score 53 Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? 62.0% · Probability Fade · score 50