S&P/ASX 200
The Activity Lines are tightly grouped or crossing, so neither side has durable control. The prior directional regime and the next fast/slow rotation provide the context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.
Background bands show the architecture recognized from information available at each completed week. Activity ordering, rotation and expansion determine the regime; the horizontal line shows this week's Fair Value as present-day context.
The Trend gate and Activity Lines are the same structural evidence viewed at different resolutions, so they are not counted twice. The gate establishes location; line order, slope, width, rotation and price acceptance establish lifecycle. Relative strength and volume influence confidence, not the regime itself.
| Regime | Recognized | Last observation | Duration | Move inside regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | 2026-04-17 | 2026-07-31 | 16w | +0.3% |
| Downward Expansion | 2026-04-03 | 2026-04-10 | 2w | +4.4% |
| Balance | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | 2w | +1.0% |
| Rotation Up | 2026-02-27 | 2026-03-13 | 3w | -6.3% |
| Balance | 2026-01-02 | 2026-02-20 | 8w | +4.1% |
| Rotation Down | 2025-11-28 | 2025-12-26 | 5w | +1.7% |
| Upward Expansion | 2025-10-24 | 2025-11-21 | 5w | -6.7% |
| Deceleration | 2025-10-03 | 2025-10-17 | 3w | +0.1% |
| Upward Expansion | 2025-07-04 | 2025-09-26 | 13w | +2.1% |
| Rotation Up | 2025-05-23 | 2025-06-27 | 6w | +1.8% |
| Downward Expansion | 2025-04-04 | 2025-05-16 | 7w | +8.8% |
| Rotation Down | 2025-03-21 | 2025-03-28 | 2w | +0.6% |
| Upward Expansion | 2025-01-31 | 2025-03-14 | 7w | -8.7% |
| Deceleration | 2025-01-03 | 2025-01-24 | 4w | +1.9% |
Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.
The ticker/SPY ratio is compared with its own trailing 52-week average. Above zero indicates leadership relative to that normalized baseline.
Latest completed volume relative to the 20-week average.
Volume on advancing weeks divided by volume on declining weeks.
Above-average participation weeks during the last 13 observations.
Correctly ordered adjacent pairs: 5/10, 10/20, 20/30 and 30/Trend.
Fast-centre separation from the slow-centre; direction of change identifies rotation.
Recent crossovers among adjacent lines; high density is evidence of balance.
Regime bands repeat the state that was actually recognized at the time.
Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.
Matches use only the architecture that would have been recognized at each completed week. Samples are spaced by the forward horizon to reduce overlap, and SPY comparison begins after each observation.
| Forward window | Samples | Median move | Positive periods | Directional follow-through | Median excess vs SPY | Regime survived | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | 18 | -0.3%-6.1% to +6.2% | +50.0% | +50.0% | +0.8% | +66.7% | Usable descriptive sample |
| 13 weeks | 7 | -1.7%-12.7% to +3.9% | +42.9% | +42.9% | +1.0% | +28.6% | Usable descriptive sample |
| 26 weeks | 4 | +0.9%-0.0% to +1.3% | +75.0% | +75.0% | -3.0% | +50.0% | Too little matched history |
| 52 weeks | 2 | +5.6%+0.8% to +10.4% | +100.0% | +100.0% | -3.0% | +0.0% | Too little matched history |
Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.
The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.
current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor. Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one.
Weekly geometry recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.
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