RFF ASX Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Rural Funds Group · Real Estate · Reit - Specialty

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Latest close 2.17 AUD
-2.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 81.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.3%, after a 9.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 52/100.

Setup score 67 out of 100
Latest Close 2.17 AUD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -2.3% latest completed week
4W Return 9.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return 6.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 92.3% 48 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.5x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 3-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • Next-week expectancy is negative at 43.27% based on similar historical setup states.
  • 4 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • Recent volatility is running well above the one-year baseline.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -2.3% Latest completed week; four-week move 9.6%. Indicator stack 61/89 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 43.27% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 52/100 15 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 81.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.3%, after a 9.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.5x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.6712-week average 0.63

12-week confirmation

Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.67Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 9.6% over four weeks, 6.4% over 12 weeks, and 26.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 3 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-2.3%
4W9.6%
12W6.4%
26W8.5%
52W26.0%
Active trend streak3 weeks
Active weeks in one year48
Trend breadth92.3%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.99Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change260.3%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership7.91Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change453.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025 Field coverage 85% Model confidence 45%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength25/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Value11/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Quality14/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
Momentum91/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Growth13/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework14/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
27.5x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
7.6x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
23.8x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
0.8%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
76.5%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
42.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
12.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
2.0%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
19.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-62.4%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
5.3%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.3%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
11.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.

2 positive · 13 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-4.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.9%Week of 17 Jul.
Worst week-3.4%Week of 3 Jul.
Latest week-2.3%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains3
Modest gains9
Flat weeks3
Modest losses11
Sharp losses0
Recent vol3.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/22Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.4% / -1.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape65/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 65/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis54/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.67; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 43.27%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 43.27% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors32/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 68; Small Cap Core rank 83 SVQF14/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 225.5 of 262 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.

Why Are Rural Funds Group (ASX:RFF) and Future Generation Australia (ASX:FGX) Attracting Income Investors? Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20262.17 AUD-2.3%2.03 AUD1.80 AUD0.997.913.6MOn
24 Jul 20262.22 AUD0.0%2.03 AUD1.80 AUD0.6113.382.8MOn
17 Jul 20262.22 AUD9.9%2.02 AUD1.80 AUD0.1513.588.4MOn
10 Jul 20262.02 AUD2.0%2.01 AUD1.79 AUD-0.453.692.4MOff
3 Jul 20261.98 AUD-3.4%2.01 AUD1.79 AUD-0.621.432.5MOff
26 Jun 20262.05 AUD0.5%2.01 AUD1.79 AUD-0.786.20739.4KOn
19 Jun 20262.04 AUD0.0%2.00 AUD1.78 AUD-1.035.24297.8KOn
12 Jun 20262.04 AUD5.9%2.00 AUD1.78 AUD-1.165.82474.1KOff
5 Jun 20261.93 AUD-1.5%1.99 AUD1.78 AUD-1.102.273.3MOff
29 May 20261.96 AUD-0.9%1.99 AUD1.77 AUD-0.972.79534.2KOn
22 May 20261.98 AUD-2.7%1.98 AUD1.77 AUD-0.804.891.9MOn
15 May 20262.03 AUD-0.5%1.98 AUD1.77 AUD-0.698.432.3MOn
8 May 20262.04 AUD0.5%1.98 AUD1.76 AUD-0.827.892.2MOn
1 May 20262.03 AUD0.0%1.97 AUD1.76 AUD-0.917.762.1MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.