UPB NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Upstream Bio, Inc. · Healthcare · Biotechnology

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Latest close 6.31 USD
-1.6% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -46.1% below the Trend Line and sits at 1.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.6%, after a -16.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 23/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 14 out of 100
Latest Close 6.31 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -1.6% latest completed week
4W Return -16.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return -30.6% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 51.9% 27 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -1.6% Latest completed week; four-week move -16.0%. Indicator stack 29/0 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 42.86% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Mixed 23/100 conviction; expected move 34.8%. News sentiment 52/100 56 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -46.1% below the Trend Line and sits at 1.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.6%, after a -16.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0412-week average 0.07

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.04Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -16.0% over four weeks, -30.6% over 12 weeks, and -59.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-1.6%
4W-16.0%
12W-30.6%
26W-79.7%
52W-59.4%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year27
Trend breadth51.9%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.21Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-1216.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-65.05Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-6.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 82% Model confidence 78%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength5/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 96; rank 1 is best.
Value31/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 70; rank 1 is best.
Quality7/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 94; rank 1 is best.
Momentum5/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 96; rank 1 is best.
Growth85/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
105.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-55.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
98.5%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-4719.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-4208.9%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-56.4%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
44.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.2%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-0.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.6x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

UPB shows mixed options pressure with a 23/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 34.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction23/100
Expected move34.8%
Put/call volume
Pressure7
Speculation0
Volatility96
Trend agreement41
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.

13 positive · 37 neutral · 6 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move34.8%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-81.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher8 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+20.5%Week of 13 Mar.
Worst week-66.6%Week of 13 Feb.
Latest week-1.6%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains3
Flat weeks2
Modest losses4
Sharp losses12
Recent vol7.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol12.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.9% / -9.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape16/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 16/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis16/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.04; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 42.86%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 42.86% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors11/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 73; Small Cap Core rank 76 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options40/100

UPB shows mixed options pressure with a 23/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 34.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 34.8% Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.

UPB|Upstream Bio Inc|Price:6.300|Chg%:-0.270 Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20266.31 USD-1.6%11.71 USD14.96 USD-0.21-65.052.2MOff
24 Jul 20266.41 USD-8.6%12.40 USD15.05 USD-0.13-64.792.8MOff
17 Jul 20267.01 USD-6.9%13.17 USD15.15 USD-0.04-62.511.9MOff
10 Jul 20267.53 USD0.3%13.92 USD15.23 USD-0.01-61.652.6MOff
3 Jul 20267.51 USD11.3%14.57 USD15.32 USD0.02-61.342.1MOff
26 Jun 20266.75 USD8.0%15.24 USD15.41 USD0.04-65.203.9MOff
19 Jun 20266.25 USD2.5%15.97 USD15.50 USD0.04-69.452.9MOff
12 Jun 20266.10 USD-13.5%16.62 USD15.61 USD0.12-69.644.0MOff
5 Jun 20267.05 USD-15.7%17.23 USD15.72 USD-0.02-64.433.3MOff
29 May 20268.36 USD-0.1%17.76 USD15.82 USD-0.24-60.031.8MOff
22 May 20268.37 USD-7.9%18.34 USD15.91 USD-0.49-59.003.0MOff
15 May 20269.09 USD0.0%18.79 USD16.00 USD-0.78-55.133.5MOff
8 May 20269.09 USD-3.3%19.19 USD16.08 USD-0.91-55.391.7MOff
1 May 20269.40 USD1.1%19.54 USD16.16 USD-0.95-51.512.4MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.