RARE NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Ultragenyx · Healthcare · Biotechnology

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Latest close 24.91 USD
-7.4% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 1.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 30.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -7.4%, after a -25.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 47/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 2d.

Setup score 25 out of 100
Latest Close 24.91 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -7.4% latest completed week
4W Return -25.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return -4.6% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 9.6% 5 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 4-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -7.4% Latest completed week; four-week move -25.6%. Indicator stack 19/58 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 47/100 conviction; expected move 20.6%. News sentiment 50/100 59 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 2d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 1.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 30.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -7.4%, after a -25.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.5312-week average 0.25

12-week confirmation

Trend active4/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership2/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.53Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -25.6% over four weeks, -4.6% over 12 weeks, and -12.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 4 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-7.4%
4W-25.6%
12W-4.6%
26W3.5%
52W-12.4%
Active trend streak4 weeks
Active weeks in one year5
Trend breadth9.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.64Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-46.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-17.53Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-430.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 76% Model confidence 73%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength32/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 69; rank 1 is best.
Value42/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 59; rank 1 is best.
Quality40/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 61; rank 1 is best.
Momentum42/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 59; rank 1 is best.
Growth42/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 59; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
4.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-13.1%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
83.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-80.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-71.8%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-51.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
13.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-3.2%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-3.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-2.0x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

RARE shows volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.87, expected move of 20.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction47/100
Expected move20.6%
Put/call volume0.87
Pressure-5
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend agreement99
Open options detail
Insider activity14 / 6

14 acquisitions and 6 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.

14 positive · 31 neutral · 14 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move20.6%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-37.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility8.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+15.8%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-16.9%Week of 13 Feb.
Latest week-7.4%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses2
Sharp losses9
Recent vol8.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.2% / -7.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape29/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 29/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis51/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 4/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 2/12.

Activity pressure 0.53; No reversal markers Factors38/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 81; Small Cap Core rank 59 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options62/100

RARE shows volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.87, expected move of 20.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 20.6% Sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.

(RARE) Risk Channels and Responsive Allocation Insiders14 / 6

14 acquisitions and 6 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings2d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202624.91 USD-7.4%24.57 USD37.67 USD0.64-17.5310.2MOn
24 Jul 202626.90 USD-8.1%24.53 USD37.75 USD0.97-11.058.5MOn
17 Jul 202629.28 USD-13.4%24.77 USD37.85 USD1.28-5.116.8MOn
10 Jul 202633.82 USD1.0%24.91 USD37.94 USD1.454.8212.3MOn
3 Jul 202633.47 USD8.8%24.99 USD38.01 USD1.215.3114.8MOff
26 Jun 202630.77 USD12.1%25.09 USD38.08 USD0.87-3.4024.9MOff
19 Jun 202627.44 USD12.7%25.22 USD38.18 USD0.53-18.5411.0MOff
12 Jun 202624.35 USD11.1%25.43 USD38.32 USD0.26-26.827.9MOff
5 Jun 202621.91 USD-8.5%25.72 USD38.48 USD0.24-33.688.7MOff
29 May 202623.94 USD2.4%26.01 USD38.66 USD0.43-31.896.0MOff
22 May 202623.39 USD-6.4%26.36 USD38.84 USD0.49-32.447.6MOff
15 May 202625.00 USD-4.3%26.70 USD39.01 USD0.50-28.007.2MOff
8 May 202626.12 USD5.5%26.96 USD39.17 USD0.53-25.9810.3MOff
1 May 202624.77 USD2.8%27.13 USD39.30 USD0.36-26.958.8MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.