BAER NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock · Industrials · Security & Protection Services

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Latest close 1.94 USD
4.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 23.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.9%, after a -1.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 51/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 4d.

Setup score 31 out of 100
Latest Close 1.94 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 4.9% latest completed week
4W Return -1.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 14.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 40.4% 21 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.9x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 4.9% Latest completed week; four-week move -1.0%. Indicator stack 22/50 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 40.00% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 51/100 62 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 4d Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 23.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.9%, after a -1.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.9x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1012-week average 0.15

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.10Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -1.0% over four weeks, 14.8% over 12 weeks, and 9.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W4.9%
4W-1.0%
12W14.8%
26W-32.6%
52W9.6%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year21
Trend breadth40.4%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.24Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change58.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-11.66Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change21.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 87%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength18/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 83; rank 1 is best.
Value21/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
Quality70/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Momentum26/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 75; rank 1 is best.
Growth35/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework3/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.9x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
28.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
12.6%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
38.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
10.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
83.5%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
3.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
6.4%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
421.4%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
7/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
9.0x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 62 relevant articles.

7 positive · 51 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-43.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility11.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher8 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.8%Week of 29 May.
Worst week-19.2%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+4.9%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains6
Modest gains2
Flat weeks2
Modest losses8
Sharp losses8
Recent vol11.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol9.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew8.6% / -5.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape27/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 27/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis10/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.10; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 40.00%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 40.00% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors33/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Tiny Titans rank 26; Buyback Yield rank 55; Small Cap Core rank 71 SVQF3/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 707.5 of 726 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 62 relevant articles.

Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER) Expected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Thursday Insiders20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings4d

Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20261.94 USD4.9%2.15 USD3.20 USD-0.24-11.662.9MOff
24 Jul 20261.85 USD-4.6%2.15 USD3.24 USD-0.35-15.50962.2KOff
17 Jul 20261.94 USD0.0%2.14 USD3.26 USD-0.45-13.092.4MOff
10 Jul 20261.94 USD-1.0%2.13 USD3.28 USD-0.53-16.971.4MOff
3 Jul 20261.96 USD13.3%2.13 USD3.31 USD-0.57-14.891.7MOff
26 Jun 20261.73 USD-7.5%2.12 USD3.33 USD-0.60-24.572.4MOff
19 Jun 20261.87 USD-1.6%2.12 USD3.35 USD-0.28-22.322.7MOff
12 Jun 20261.90 USD0.5%2.12 USD3.38 USD-0.22-19.262.4MOff
5 Jun 20261.89 USD-19.2%2.12 USD3.41 USD-0.36-18.213.2MOff
29 May 20262.34 USD18.8%2.11 USD3.45 USD-0.41-3.786.4MOff
22 May 20261.97 USD18.0%2.09 USD3.48 USD-0.75-16.665.9MOff
15 May 20261.67 USD-1.2%2.08 USD3.50 USD-0.90-28.432.9MOff
8 May 20261.69 USD-17.6%2.08 USD3.53 USD-0.81-28.054.5MOff
1 May 20262.05 USD-3.8%2.08 USD3.56 USD-0.80-8.211.8MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.