- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
DFDV
NASDAQ
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
DeFi Development Corp. · Financial Services · Asset Management
Latest close
2.56 USD
-5.2%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -36.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 0.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -5.2%, after a -22.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 51/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 10d.
Setup score
11
out of 100
Latest Close
2.56 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-5.2%
latest completed week
4W Return
-22.4%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-42.6%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
17.3%
9 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-5.2%
Latest completed week; four-week move -22.4%.
Indicator stack
10/0
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 40.10%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
51/100 conviction; expected move 19.5%.
News sentiment
52/100
35 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
10d
Next report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -36.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 0.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -5.2%, after a -22.4% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0612-week average 0.09
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.06Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -22.4% over four weeks, -42.6% over 12 weeks, and -80.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year9
Trend breadth17.3%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.42Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-709.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-67.83Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-1.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 82%
Model confidence 78%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength7/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 94; rank 1 is best.
Value29/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 72; rank 1 is best.
Quality25/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Momentum1/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 100; rank 1 is best.
Growth91/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 5.9x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 65.4% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 94.9% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -1091.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 976.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -83.9% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 596.6% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 2/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -60.8% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -60.8% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -0.8x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
DFDV shows volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.20, expected move of 19.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction51/100
Expected move19.5%
Put/call volume0.20
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment52/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 35 relevant articles.
7 positive · 26 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings10dNext report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move19.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-87.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility11.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher9 of 2617 weeks finished lower.
Best week+21.0%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-28.4%Week of 6 Feb.
Latest week-5.2%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains9
Modest gains0
Flat weeks0
Modest losses3
Sharp losses14
Recent vol11.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol13.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split19/33Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew13.0% / -10.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Financial Services
4-week rank- / 100
Group average3.0%
Trend breadth64.0%
Trend64.0%active weekly trend signals
MD87.0%positive activity pressure
RS56.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Asset Management
4-week rank- / 100
Group average0.3%
Trend breadth45.0%
Trend45.0%active weekly trend signals
MD53.0%positive activity pressure
RS27.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape12/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 12/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis23/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.06; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 40.10%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 40.10% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors14/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 97; Small Cap Core rank 89 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options35/100DFDV shows volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.20, expected move of 19.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 19.5% Sentiment52/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 35 relevant articles.
DeFi Development (NASDAQ:DFDV) Stock Price Down 3.8% - Time to Sell? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings10dNext report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 2.56 USD | -5.2% | 4.02 USD | 4.69 USD | -0.42 | -67.83 | 2.8M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 2.70 USD | -4.1% | 4.11 USD | 4.69 USD | -0.16 | -66.95 | 3.2M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 2.81 USD | -6.2% | 4.22 USD | 4.68 USD | -0.01 | -67.50 | 3.6M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 3.00 USD | -9.1% | 4.29 USD | 4.70 USD | -0.00 | -68.54 | 3.1M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 3.30 USD | 20.9% | 4.38 USD | 4.71 USD | 0.07 | -66.75 | 4.5M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 2.73 USD | -9.3% | 4.47 USD | 4.72 USD | 0.06 | -73.51 | 5.4M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 3.01 USD | -2.9% | 4.63 USD | 4.73 USD | 0.21 | -72.97 | 3.5M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 3.10 USD | 8.4% | 4.74 USD | 4.74 USD | 0.43 | -72.78 | 5.0M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 2.86 USD | -26.5% | 4.87 USD | 4.75 USD | 0.67 | -75.50 | 7.1M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 3.89 USD | -4.4% | 5.06 USD | 4.76 USD | 0.76 | -69.21 | 4.0M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 4.07 USD | -15.2% | 5.29 USD | 4.77 USD | 0.72 | -67.77 | 2.8M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 4.80 USD | 7.6% | 5.62 USD | 4.78 USD | 0.52 | -63.74 | 5.3M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 4.46 USD | -2.0% | 5.88 USD | 4.77 USD | 0.37 | -67.50 | 4.1M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 4.55 USD | 5.3% | 6.20 USD | 4.78 USD | 0.23 | -65.50 | 2.5M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.