- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 63.26% based on similar historical setup states.
FTAI
NASDAQ
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
FTAI Aviation Ltd. · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Latest close
206.0 USD
-4.6%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -18.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 38.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.6%, after a -17.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 56/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 2d.
Setup score
37
out of 100
Latest Close
206.0 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-4.6%
latest completed week
4W Return
-17.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-23.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
92.3%
48 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
2.3x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-4.6%
Latest completed week; four-week move -17.0%.
Indicator stack
51/27
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 63.26%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
56/100 conviction; expected move 8.4%.
News sentiment
54/100
36 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
2d
Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -18.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 38.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.6%, after a -17.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 2.3x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4512-week average 0.48
12-week confirmation
Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership8/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.45Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers11 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -17.0% over four weeks, -23.7% over 12 weeks, and 51.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year48
Trend breadth92.3%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.77Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-117.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-11.87Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-354.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 93%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength38/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Value5/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 96; rank 1 is best.
Quality72/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
Momentum94/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
Growth98/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework33/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 41.3x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 7.8x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.1x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 2.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 31.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 31.7% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 17.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 21.3% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 47.6% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 651.0% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -57.9% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 5/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 0.7% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.7% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
FTAI shows volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.09, expected move of 8.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction56/100
Expected move8.4%
Put/call volume0.09
Insider activity10 / 9
10 acquisitions and 9 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 36 relevant articles.
10 positive · 24 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move8.4%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-36.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility8.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+14.1%Week of 19 Jun.
Worst week-14.9%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week-4.6%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains5
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses0
Sharp losses10
Recent vol8.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.9% / -6.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Industrials
4-week rank90 / 100
Group average-3.6%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS53.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Aerospace & Defense
4-week rank59 / 82
Group average-10.6%
Trend breadth23.2%
Trend23.2%active weekly trend signals
MD34.1%positive activity pressure
RS26.8%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape42/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 42/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis44/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 8/12.
Activity pressure 0.45; 1 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 63.26%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 63.26% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 56 SVQF33/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 489.5 of 726 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options37/100FTAI shows volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.09, expected move of 8.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 8.4% Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 36 relevant articles.
California State Teachers Retirement System Increases Stock Holdings in FTAI Aviation Ltd. $FTAI Insiders10 / 910 acquisitions and 9 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Research flow1 items0 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 206.0 USD | -4.6% | 251.2 USD | 132.0 USD | -0.77 | -11.87 | 14.1M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 216.0 USD | 4.1% | 251.3 USD | 130.9 USD | -0.79 | -6.82 | 7.5M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 207.5 USD | -8.7% | 249.9 USD | 129.7 USD | -0.62 | -11.37 | 6.2M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 227.3 USD | -8.3% | 248.6 USD | 128.6 USD | -0.35 | -6.40 | 6.8M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 248.1 USD | -4.6% | 246.9 USD | 127.4 USD | -0.35 | 4.66 | 3.9M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 260.1 USD | -5.8% | 244.5 USD | 126.0 USD | -0.47 | 11.60 | 5.8M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 276.1 USD | 14.1% | 241.6 USD | 124.5 USD | -0.60 | 14.16 | 4.5M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 242.0 USD | 3.4% | 237.6 USD | 122.9 USD | -0.80 | 3.50 | 5.0M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 234.1 USD | -10.1% | 234.8 USD | 121.5 USD | -0.81 | 3.05 | 4.0M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 260.3 USD | 3.3% | 232.4 USD | 120.2 USD | -0.60 | 10.05 | 3.9M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 252.1 USD | 6.0% | 229.5 USD | 118.7 USD | -0.57 | 10.51 | 6.0M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 238.0 USD | -11.8% | 227.1 USD | 117.3 USD | -0.64 | 6.39 | 5.8M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 269.8 USD | 12.6% | 224.7 USD | 115.9 USD | -0.63 | 21.06 | 7.9M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 239.5 USD | 3.0% | 221.1 USD | 114.4 USD | -0.73 | 14.51 | 11.6M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.