BLBD NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Blue Bird Corp · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

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Latest close 74.39 USD
-2.4% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 16.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 77.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.4%, after a -2.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 54/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 59/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 4d.

Setup score 67 out of 100
Latest Close 74.39 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -2.4% latest completed week
4W Return -2.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return 4.7% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 75.0% 39 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 18-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 12 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -2.4% Latest completed week; four-week move -2.2%. Indicator stack 86/69 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 56.35% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Volatility 54/100 conviction; expected move 11.7%. News sentiment 59/100 53 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 4d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 16.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 77.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.4%, after a -2.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.9412-week average 0.87

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.94Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers1212 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 12 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -2.2% over four weeks, 4.7% over 12 weeks, and 71.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 18 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-2.4%
4W-2.2%
12W4.7%
26W47.9%
52W71.7%
Active trend streak18 weeks
Active weeks in one year39
Trend breadth75.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.21Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-31.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership14.80Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-8.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 93%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength93/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 8; rank 1 is best.
Value66/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 35; rank 1 is best.
Quality97/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Momentum90/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Growth94/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
18.1x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.6x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
11.2x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
10.3%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
21.0%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
12.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
15.3%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
124.9%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
10.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
23.0%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
71.2%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
8/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
1.6%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.9x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

BLBD shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 11.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction54/100
Expected move11.7%
Put/call volume0.01
Pressure100
Speculation15
Volatility84
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity11 / 0

11 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.

23 positive · 28 neutral · 2 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move11.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-10.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+17.7%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-7.8%Week of 22 May.
Latest week-2.4%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.7% / -3.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape71/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 71/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis82/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.94; 12 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 56.35%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.35% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors86/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 26; Small Cap Core rank 69 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options36/100

BLBD shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 11.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 11.7% Sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.

Lazard Asset Management LLC Buys 238,379 Shares of Blue Bird Corporation $BLBD Insiders11 / 0

11 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings4d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202674.39 USD-2.4%63.83 USD44.41 USD1.2114.802.3MOn
24 Jul 202676.20 USD-2.7%62.90 USD44.07 USD1.5618.962.8MOn
17 Jul 202678.34 USD1.2%62.06 USD43.71 USD1.7121.091.4MOn
10 Jul 202677.38 USD1.7%61.17 USD43.35 USD1.7715.491.8MOn
3 Jul 202676.08 USD-3.5%60.27 USD43.00 USD1.7516.222.2MOn
26 Jun 202678.81 USD6.5%59.44 USD42.64 USD1.6422.052.9MOn
19 Jun 202673.99 USD3.4%58.55 USD42.28 USD1.3210.191.5MOn
12 Jun 202671.54 USD2.7%57.88 USD41.94 USD1.269.851.6MOn
5 Jun 202669.68 USD2.8%57.20 USD41.63 USD1.389.972.2MOn
29 May 202667.77 USD2.2%56.56 USD41.32 USD1.542.621.6MOn
22 May 202666.30 USD-7.8%55.97 USD41.05 USD1.553.683.3MOn
15 May 202671.87 USD1.2%55.63 USD40.80 USD1.4614.152.9MOn
8 May 202671.02 USD13.0%55.05 USD40.51 USD1.2013.003.5MOn
1 May 202662.87 USD-3.3%54.51 USD40.22 USD0.966.041.7MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.